I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 31 days now. The 30 countries chosen are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they include the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,781,149 COVID-19 cases (up 4% from 1,712,116 yesterday), which is 88.44% of the total 2,014,000 cases (up 4.1% from 1,934,557 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 8-15 April with the 7-day period 7-14 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.393 times in 7-days, while deaths have gone up 1.543 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.375 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 11,000 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.99% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.9%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 30,000 cases in the next 2 days.
India has a CDGR of 11.36% (down from 11.8%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 15,000+ cases in 3 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India has jumped to No.19 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Turkey has a CDGR of 9.68% (down from 10.6%) and will cross 75,000 cases in 2 days; Brazil 9% (down from 9.9%) will cross 50,000 cases in 8 days; UK 7.87% (down from 8%) will cross 100,000 cases in 1 day; USA 6.3% (down from 6.9%) will cross 1 million cases in 8 days; Sweden 5.84% (down from 6.2%) will cross 15,000 cases in 5 days; Belgium 5.29% (up from 4.9%) will cross 40,000 cases in 4 days; Netherlands 4.93% (down from 5.1%) will cross 30,000 cases in 2 days; France 3.98% (down from 4.9%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Germany 2.98% (down from 3.3%) will cross 150,000 cases in 5 days; Spain 2.77% (down from 3%) will cross 200,000 cases in 5 days; Italy 2.62% (down from 2.7%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Switzerland 2.11% (down from 2.3%) will cross 30,000 cases in 7 days; Iran 1.83% (down from 2.3%) will cross 80,000 cases in 3 days; and Austria 1.65% (down from 1.8%) will cross 15,000 cases in 4 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China or South Korea, as they have either managed to control the disease, or are misreporting data. If South Korea is under-reporting data, it is behaving like its Northern neighbour.
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 4.66% for all 30 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest CDGR) is 9.44%, for the “Middle 10” countries it is 5.34%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.03%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.45%.
Of the 486,057 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 96.7% are from the 18 countries that have at least 10,000 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 22 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (est. 3,378 tests per million people), than the 12 others (est. 675 tests per million). One good thing is that the last 12 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.
See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths
Are we getting ready to say “goodbye” to Coronavirus
Why is India still seeing Zig-Zag Curves?
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:45 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.016 million cases
- The global death toll is over 127,800
- India has reached 11,643 cases and 399 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Switzerland became the 2nd country after Spain to cross 3 cases per 1000 residents
- Iran became the 8th country to cross 75,000 cases, Brazil the 14th to cross 25,000 cases, Japan the 24th to cross 8,000 cases and Romania the 28th to cross 7,000 cases
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38 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)
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40 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)
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48 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)
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55 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)
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74 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)
- France became the 4th country to cross 15,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 12,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 14 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 43 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)