Look at the graph of the daily growth rate in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths worldwide in the last 20 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
While the daily growth rate in the number of cases showed continuous declines for 4 days straight on 27th, 28th, 29th and 30th March, it went up by 10% on 31st March. Thereafter, it declined on 1st and 2nd April, followed by a significant increase on 3rd April. Then, there were two sharp decreases on 4th and 5th April, followed by a small decrease on 6th April. Then, on 7th April, it again went up. This was followed by decreases on 8th and 9th April, and then an increase on 10th April.
The good news is that – in the four days from 11th to 14th April, there have been continuous decreases in the growth rate.
The best part is that the 4-day moving average has been constantly coming down since 30 March except a small uptick on 3 April.
The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph has been swinging wildly like a pendulum. After continuous declines for the past four days, there was a huge increase yesterday (14th April). However, the 4-day moving average has only seen two upticks on 2nd and 9th April.
Do the figures of the last 10 days show that the Coronavirus Pandemic is finally under control? Looks more likely than not. If the disease is indeed on its decline, one big reason is the lockdown (or similar measures) imposed on over half the world’s population.
I will do a separate post about India.
LATEST UPDATES (at 06:45 am UTC):
- The world now has over 2 million cases
- The global death toll is over 126,750
- India has reached 11,511 cases and 394 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Israel became the 18th country to cross 12,000 cases, Peru the 23rd to cross 10,000, and Japan the 24th to cross 8,000
36 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)
40 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)
48 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)
55 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)
74 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)
- USA became the first country to cross 26,000 deaths and Italy the second to cross 21,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 12,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
- 14 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 43 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)