Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in last 7 days

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 30 days now. The 30 countries chosen are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they include the most populated nations on earth Рthat is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,712,116 COVID-19 cases (up 3.6% from 1,652,561 yesterday), which is 88.5% of the total 1,934,557 cases (up 3.9% from 1,862,240 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 7-14 April with the 7-day period 6-13 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.426 times in the 7-day period from 7 to 14 April, while deaths have gone up 1.6 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.407 times.

Ignoring countries with less than 10,000 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.9% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 16.4%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 25,000 cases in the next 2 days.

India has a CDGR of 11.8% (up from 11.5%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 15,000+ cases in 3 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is still at No.22 (up from No.38 on March 31), the same position it has held for last 4 days.

Turkey has a CDGR of 10.6% (down from 11.2%) and will cross 75,000 cases in 3 days; Brazil 9.9% (down from 10.2%) will cross 30,000 cases in 3 days; UK 8% (down from 8.4%) will cross 100,000 cases in 2 days; USA 6.9% (down from 7.5%) will cross 1 million cases in 8 days; Sweden 6.2% (down from 6.3%) will cross 15,000 cases in 6 days; Netherlands 5.1% (down from 5.3%) will cross 30,000 cases in 3 days; Belgium 4.9% (down from 5.7%) will cross 40,000 cases in 6 days; France 4.9% (down from 5.2%) will cross 200,000 cases in 8 days; Germany 3.3% (down from 3.6%) will cross 150,000 cases in 5 days; Spain 3% (down from 3.3%) will cross 200,000 cases in 6 days; Italy 2.7% (down from 2.8%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Iran 2.3% (down from 2.5%) will cross 75,000 cases in 2 days; Switzerland 2.3% (down from 2.6%) will cross 30,000 cases in 7 days; and Austria 1.8% (down from 2.1%) will cross 15,000 cases in 4 days.

There is no point in writing about China or South Korea, as they have either managed to control the disease, or are misreporting data. If South Korea is under-reporting data, it is behaving like its Northern neighbour.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 5% for all 30 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest CDGR) is 9.9%, for the “Middle 10” countries it is 5.9%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.2%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.7%.

Of the 495,447 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 96.9% are from the 18 countries that have at least 10,000 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 21 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (est. 3,297 tests per million people), than the 12 others (est. 657 tests per million). One good thing is that the last 12 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.

See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths in the 23 countries with most cases

See Post titled “Slowdown Due To Lockdown”

LATEST UPDATES (at 5:00 pm UTC):

  • The world has reached 1.969 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 115,000
  • India has reached 11,211 cases and 370 deaths as per covid19india.org
  • USA is minutes away from reaching 600,000 cases
  • Russia became the 15th country to cross 20,000 cases, India the 21st to cross 11,000, Peru the 23rd to cross 9,000, Poland the 27th to cross 7,000 cases, and Czechia the 32nd to cross 6,000 cases
  • 36 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 40 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 48 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)

  • 55 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 74 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • Belgium became the 7th country to cross 4,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 12,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 41 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

 

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