Slowdown Due to Lockdown?

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Look at the graph of the daily growth increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths worldwide in the last 16 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.

While the daily growth rate in the number of cases showed continuous declines for 4 days straight on 27, 28, 29 and 30 March, it went up by 10% on 31 March. Thereafter, it declined at the same rate of 4.6% on 1 April and 2 April, followed by a significant increase of 16.9% (from 8.6% to 10%) on 3 April. Then, there were two sharp decreases of 24.2% on 4 April and 21.7% on 5 April, followed by a small decrease of 2.3% on 6 April. Then, on 7 April, it again went up by 8.8%. This was followed by decreases of 6.7% and 4.8% on 8 April and 9 April, and then an increase of 6.6% yesterday.

The best part is that the 4-day moving average has been constantly coming down since 30 March except a small uptick on 3 April.

The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph has been swinging wildly like a pendulum. However, the 4-day moving average has only seen one uptick on 2 April.

Do the figures of the last 7 days show that the Coronavirus Pandemic is finally under control? Looks more likely than not. If the disease is indeed on its decline, one big reason is the lockdown (or similar measures) imposed on over half the world’s population.

Let me tell you about the growth rates for India. The story is quite different from the rest of  the world, and that is undoubtedly because India started aggressive testing quite late. The 4-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases continuously increased for 7 days from 29 March to 4 April, then reduced for 3 days on 5, 6, and 7 April, followed by an increase in the last 2 days. The 4-day moving average in no. of deaths remained between 25% and 29.2% for 5 days from 29 March to 2 April, then between 19.1% and 21.3% for 3 days on 3, 4 & 5 April, and has remained at 17.5% or lower for the last 5 days.

See my latest Daily Update on Worldwide Growth of COVID-19

See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths in the 23 countries with most no. of cases

See Post on Data about USA and its Top States with Coronavirus

LATEST UPDATES (at 07:15 am UTC):

  • The world now has 1.701 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 102,800
  • India has reached 7,684 cases and 250 deaths as per
  • UK became the 7th country to cross 73,000 cases, Belgium the 10th to cross 25,000, Israel the 19th to cross 10,000, Ireland the 21st to cross 8,000, India the 22nd to cross 7,500, Ecuador the 23rd to cross 7,000, and Poland the 28th to cross 6,000 cases
  • 32 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 35 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 41 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 34 on April 8)

  • 51 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 65 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • 4 countries have 13,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
  • 6 countries have 4000+ deaths (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 13 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 34 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)


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