It’s NOT a Good Friday – Global Coronavirus Growth in 18 days

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies¬†on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 26 days now. The 30 countries chosen for this particular Study (“Daily Growth”) are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,440,467 COVID-19 cases (up 5.4% from 1,366,748 yesterday), which is 89.2% of the total 1,614,861 cases (up 5.6% from 1,529,084 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample. Let me add a note here that some countries may not have updated their data today because of the Good Friday holiday.

COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 4.75 times in 18 days, while deaths have gone up 6.54 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 4.6 times. If we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a higher rate of 6.05 times in 18 days. With an extremely low increase of only 0.01 times in China and only 0.166 times in South Korea, why don’t these countries inform the rest of the world how they have controlled the spread of the disease?

For the 12th day running, Turkey still continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases (not growth in the absolute number, which is in USA). The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 33.21 times in 18 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 5 days. It was 5 days yesterday also, so the growth has slowed down a bit.

In the last 18 days, cases in Russia have gone up 26.21 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 5 days at the same growth rate); USA up 12.37 times (projected  to cross 1 million cases in 6 days); Brazil up 10.76 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 3 days); UK up 10.45 times (projected to cross 100,000 cases in 4 days); Mexico up 9.89 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 9 days); Philippines up 9.59 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 7 days); Belgium up 6.84 times (projected to cross 50,000 cases in 6 days); France up 6.35 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 5 days); Indonesia up 5.83 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 10 days); Pakistan up 4.73 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 9 days); Spain up 4.46 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 3 days); and Netherlands up 4.18 times (projected to cross 50,000 cases in 10 days).

The relative growth rate in some of the above countries has been gradually reducing in the past 9 days, thus shifting the milestones by a day.

The number of cases in India have gone up 12.51 times in 18 days. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 13th April. In terms of rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.21 (up from No.38 on March 31). The rank has been continuously increasing due to increase in testing.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

In 18 days, compared to the average relative growth rate of 4.6 times for all 30 countries in the Study, the number of cases have gone up 13.74 times in the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 5.69 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.9 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.72 times.

Of the 1,127,527 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 18 days, 97.8% are from the 19 countries that have at least 6,200 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 18 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 19 countries (3,033 tests per million people), than the 11 others (334 tests per million).

LATEST UPDATES (at 11:30 pm UTC):

  • The world now has over 1.617 million cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 96,900
  • India has 6,835 cases and 229 deaths, as per covid19india.org
  • Turkey became the 9th country to cross 40,000 cases
  • Israel became the 19th country to cross 10,000 cases
  • The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 31 (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 35 countries have 4000+ cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 39 countries have 3000+ cases (up from 34 on April 8)

  • 48 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 64 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • Iran became the 6th country with over 4,000 deaths and Belgium the 8th with over 3,000 deaths
  • 10 countries have 2000+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 26 countries have 200+ deaths (up from 19 on April 9)
  • 34 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

Read my post on highest growth in number of deaths

Read my post on Mortality Rates

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