I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 27 days now. The 30 countries chosen are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they include the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,520,732 COVID-19 cases (up 5.57% from 1,440,467 yesterday), which is 88.9% of the total 1,710,148 cases (up 5.9% from 1,614,861 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Until yesterday, I was reporting this data based on 23 March as the base date. However, as the rate of growth of the disease worldwide seems to have slowed down, I have now reset the base date to 4 April. However, in the Table, a comparison with 23 March is also there, just for continuity’s sake.
COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.52 times in 7 days, while deaths have gone up 1.59 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.51 times.
Turkey, which was the country with the highest Compounded Daily Growth Rate (CDGR) for 13 days, is now down to No.5 due to the new base date. Bangladesh is the new No.1, but I will ignore it due to the very small numbers compared to the other countries (except Vietnam, which has even smaller numbers).
Ignoring countries with less than 6,000 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest CDGR of 16.3% (down from 19-day CDGR of 19.8%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 25,000 cases in the next 5 days.
Turkey has a CDGR of 12.3% (down from 21.1%) and will cross 25,000 cases in 5 days at the same CDGR; Brazil 11.7% (down from 14.4%) will cross 25,000 cases in 3 days; Japan 10.8% (up from 9.3%) will cross 10,000 cases in 5 days; UK 9.9% (down from 14.4%) will cross 10,000 cases in 4 days; USA 8.9% (down from 15.1%) will cross 1 million cases in 9 days; Sweden 6.7% (down from 8.8%) will cross 15,000 cases in 7 days; Belgium 6.2% (down from 11.7%) will cross 50,000 cases in 10 days; France 6.2% (down from 11.4%) will cross 200,000 cases in 8 days; Netherlands 5.6% (down from 9.4%) will cross 30,000 cases in 5 days; Germany 5.4% (down from 8.7%) will cross 200,000 cases in 10 days; Spain 3.8% (down from 9.5%) will cross 200,000 cases in 6 days; Switzerland 3.3% (down from 6.5%) will cross 30,000 cases in 7 days; Italy 3% (down from 4.9%) will cross 200,000 cases in 11 days; Iran 2.9% (down from 6.2%) will cross 75,000 cases in 4 days; Austria 2.2% (down from 7.3%) will cross 15,000 cases in 5 days; and Australia 1.8% (down from 7.1%) will cross 7,500 cases in 10 days.
There is no point in writing about China or South Korea, as they have either managed to control the disease, or are misreporting data. If South Korea is under-reporting data, it is behaving like its Northern neighbour.
India has a CDGR of 13.7%, the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 13th April. In terms of rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.22 (up from No.38 on March 31).
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 6% for all 30 countries in the Study, the CDGR of the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest CDGR) is 11.3%, for the “Middle 10” countries it is 7.6%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.6%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 3.3%.
Of the 511,015 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 97.4% are from the 19 countries that have at least 6,250 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 19 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 19 countries (est. 3,149 tests per million people), than the 11 others (est. 339 tests per million).
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:45 pm UTC):
- The world now has 1.716 million cases
- The global death toll is over 103,800
- India has reached 7,906 cases and 253 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Iran became the 8th country to cross 70,000 cases, Belgium the 10th to cross 28,000, Portugal the 15th to cross 15,000, Sweden the 20th to cross 10,000, Ireland the 21st to cross 8,000, Ecuador the 23rd to cross 7,000, and Poland the 28th country to cross 6,000 cases
32 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)
36 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)
41 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)
52 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)
68 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)
- 4 countries have 13,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 6 countries have 4000+ deaths (up from 4 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 34 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)