Global Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Growth Showing Declining Trends

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 29 days now. The 30 countries chosen are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they include the most populated nations on earth Рthat is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,652,561 COVID-19 cases (up 3.9% from 1,590,761 yesterday), which is 88.74% of the total 1,862,240 cases (up 4% from 1,790,565 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 6-13 April with the 7-day period 5-12 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.453 times in the 7-day period from 6 April to 13 April, while deaths have gone up 1.644 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.436 times.

Ignoring countries with less than 9,000 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 16.4% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 16.6%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 25,000 cases in the next 3 days.

India has a CDGR of 11.5% (down from 12.7%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 14th April. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.22 (up from No.38 on March 31).

Turkey has a CDGR of 11.2% (down from 11.8%) and will cross 75,000 cases in 3 days; Brazil 10.2% (down from 10.6%) will cross 25,000 cases in 2 days; UK 8.4% (down from 9.5%) will cross 100,000 cases in 3 days; USA 8% (down from 8.9%) will cross 1 million cases in 8 days; Sweden 6.3% (down from 6.7%) will cross 15,000 cases in 6 days; Belgium 5.7% (down from 6%) will cross 50,000 cases in 9 days; Netherlands 5.3% (down from 5.6%) will cross 30,000 cases in 4 days; France 5.2% (down from 5.4%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Germany 3.6% (down from 3.9%) will cross 150,000 cases in 5 days; Spain 3.3% (down from 3.5%) will cross 200,000 cases in 6 days; Italy 2.8% (down from 2.9%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Switzerland 2.6% (down from 3%) will cross 30,000 cases in 7 days; Iran 2.5% (down from 2.7%) will cross 75,000 cases in 2 days; and Austria 2.1% (down from 2.4%) will cross 15,000 cases in 4 days.

There is no point in writing about China or South Korea, as they have either managed to control the disease, or are misreporting data. If South Korea is under-reporting data, it is behaving like its Northern neighbour.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 5.3% for all 30 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest CDGR) is 10.2%, for the “Middle 10” countries it is 6.4%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.3%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.9%.

Almost all the countries in the Study are showing a declining trend in terms of the 7-day CDGR, hence the headline of this post.

Of the 501,731 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 96.9% are from the 18 countries that have at least 9,000 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 20 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (est. 3,178 tests per million people), than the 12 others (est. 610 tests per million).

See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths in the 23 countries with most cases

See Post titled “Slowdown Due To Lockdown”

LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):

  • The world has reached 1.866 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 115,000
  • India has reached 9,431 cases and 335 deaths as per covid19india.org
  • UK became the 6th country (after USA, Spain, Italy, France, and Germany) to cross China in total cases
  • Belgium became the 10th country to cross 30,000 cases, India the 22nd to cross 9,000, and Chile the 26th to cross 7,000 cases
  • 33 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 39 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 45 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)

  • 54 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 71 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • UK became the 5th country to cross 10,000 deaths and Germany the 9th to cross 3,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 10,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 13 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 39 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

 

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