I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 28 days now. The 30 countries chosen are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they include the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,590,761 COVID-19 cases (up 4.6% from 1,520,732 yesterday), which is 88.84% of the total 1,790,565 cases (up 4.7% from 1,710,148 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Until Friday 10 April, I was reporting this data based on 23 March as the base date. However, as the rate of growth of the disease worldwide seems to have slowed down, I have reset the base date to 4 April yesterday. From today onwards, I will show the growth for the last 7 days, and also a comparison with a previous 7-day period. Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 5-12 April with the 7-day period 4-11 April.
COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.48 times in 7 days, while deaths have gone up 1.68 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.46 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 8,000 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 16.6% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 16.3%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 25,000 cases in the next 4 days.
India has a CDGR of 12.7% (down from 13.7%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 14th April (this milestone has shifted by a day since yesterday, when it was 13th April). In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.22 (up from No.38 on March 31).
Turkey has a CDGR of 11.8% (down from 12.3%) and will cross 25,000 cases in 6 days; Brazil 10.6% (down from 11.7%) will cross 25,000 cases in 2 days; UK 9.5% (down from 9.9%) will cross 10,000 cases in 3 days; USA 8% (down from 8.9%) will cross 1 million cases in 9 days; Sweden 6.7% (same) will cross 15,000 cases in 7 days; Belgium 6% (down from 6.2%) will cross 50,000 cases in 9 days; Netherlands 5.6% (same) will cross 30,000 cases in 4 days; France 5.4% (down from 6.2%) will cross 200,000 cases in 9 days; Germany 3.9% (down from 5.4%) will cross 150,000 cases in 5 days; Spain 3.5% (down from 3.8%) will cross 200,000 cases in 6 days; Switzerland 3% (down from 3.3%) will cross 30,000 cases in 6 days; Italy 2.9% (down from 3%) will cross 200,000 cases in 10 days; Iran 2.7% (down from 2.9%) will cross 75,000 cases in 3 days; and Austria 2.4% (up from 2.2%) will cross 15,000 cases in 4 days.
There is no point in writing about China or South Korea, as they have either managed to control the disease, or are misreporting data. If South Korea is under-reporting data, it is behaving like its Northern neighbour.
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 5.5% for all 30 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest CDGR) is 11%, for the “Middle 10” countries it is 6.7%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.5%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 3%.
Of the 500,477 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 97% are from the 18 countries that have at least 8,700 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 20 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (est. 3,170 tests per million people), than the 12 others (est. 579 tests per million).
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):
- The world has reached almost 1.8 million cases
- The global death toll is almost 1110,000
- India has reached 8,897 cases and 293 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Italy became the 3rd country (after USA and Spain) to cross 150,000 cases, Germany the 5th (after France) to cross 125,000, and UK the 7th (after China) to cross 75,000 Iran the 8th to cross 70,000, and Turkey the 9th to cross 50,000 cases
- Switzerland and the Netherlands became the 11th and 12th countries to cross 25,000 cases each, Brazil 14th to cross 20,000, Russia 16th to cross 15,000, Sweden 20th to cross 10,000, India 22nd to cross 8,000, Ecuador 23rd to cross 7,000, and Denmark the 31st to cross 6,000 cases
33 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)
38 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)
42 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)
53 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)
70 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)
- USA became the first country to cross 20,000 deaths
- 4 countries have 13,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 6 countries have 4000+ deaths (up from 4 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 38 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)