Why is India Still Seeing Zig-Zag Curves for Coronavirus Cases and Deaths?

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While the rest of  the world has definitely seen a slowdown in the number of cases in the last 10 days and especially the last 4 days (SEE POST), the same is not the case with India.

Is this because India started aggressive testing quite late? As of 3rd April, India had done less than 48,000 tests. As of yesterday, India has done over 206,000 tests.

The daily growth rate in the number of cases showed an increase on 1st April, followed by decreases on 2nd and 3rd April. Then there was an increase on 4th, followed by a significant decrease on 5th. Then there were increases on 6th as well as 7th, followed by a decrease on 8th April. This was followed by yet another increase on 9th, and then three consecutive decreases on 10th, 11th and 12th April. I thought India is also following the global pattern of a slowdown, but the growth went up significantly on 13th April. Even though it has come down on 14th, it is still higher than the 12th April figure.

The 4-day moving average constantly went up from 30th March to 4th April, followed by 4 days of decline. Then it went up again on 9th and 10th. It has again declined constantly in the last 4 days, which may be a good sign.

The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph has been swinging wildly like a pendulum. Even the 4-day moving average has been swinging continuously, showing no clear pattern.

See my yesterday’s Daily Update on Worldwide Growth of COVID-19

See Post on Recoveries Vs. Deaths

LATEST UPDATES (at 07:30 am UTC):

  • The world now has over 2.004 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 126,800
  • India has reached 11,575 cases and 396 deaths as per covid19india.org
  • Russia became the 15th country to cross 24,000 cases, Israel the 18th to cross 12,000, Peru the 23rd to cross 10,000, and Japan the 24th to cross 8,000
  • 36 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 40 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 48 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 30 on April 6)

  • 55 countries have crossed 2,000 (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 74 countries have crossed 1,000 cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • USA became the first country to cross 26,000 deaths and Italy the second to cross 21,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 12,000+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 43 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)


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