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Why is India Still Seeing Zig-Zag Curves for Coronavirus Cases and Deaths?

While the rest of  the world has definitely seen a slowdown in the number of cases in the last 10 days and especially the last 4 days (SEE POST), the same is not the case with India.

Is this because India started aggressive testing quite late? As of 3rd April, India had done less than 48,000 tests. As of yesterday, India has done over 206,000 tests.

The daily growth rate in the number of cases showed an increase on 1st April, followed by decreases on 2nd and 3rd April. Then there was an increase on 4th, followed by a significant decrease on 5th. Then there were increases on 6th as well as 7th, followed by a decrease on 8th April. This was followed by yet another increase on 9th, and then three consecutive decreases on 10th, 11th and 12th April. I thought India is also following the global pattern of a slowdown, but the growth went up significantly on 13th April. Even though it has come down on 14th, it is still higher than the 12th April figure.

The 4-day moving average constantly went up from 30th March to 4th April, followed by 4 days of decline. Then it went up again on 9th and 10th. It has again declined constantly in the last 4 days, which may be a good sign.

The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph has been swinging wildly like a pendulum. Even the 4-day moving average has been swinging continuously, showing no clear pattern.

See my yesterday’s Daily Update on Worldwide Growth of COVID-19

See Post on Recoveries Vs. Deaths

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