In by first book – 1914: NaMo or MoNa, Why 2019 is not 2014, available on www.1914book.com, I write as follows:
In a nutshell, as things stand today (April 15, 2018), Modi’s NDA (whatever is left of it) will get 219-222 Lok Sabha seats against the 272 required to get an absolute majority.
If (and only if) Modi swings a pre-poll alliance with superstar Rajinikanth in Tamil Nadu, like I have already said, NDA will get 36-38 seats in this southern state, and will therefore have 255-260 seats, sufficient to get him back a second term as Prime Minister of India.
The Congress-led UPA-3 (with Pappu as the projected PM) will not be able to form the next government in 2019, as it will have just 121-127 seats. However, Congress will definitely play a part in government formation, by supporting a third front, which will most likely have Akhilesh “Tipu” Yadav or NCBN or Didi as the PM, depending on which of these three leaders’ party gets the maximum number of the 196- 204 non-NDA non-UPA seats.
Yes, I am very sure that all anti-Modi forces will come together to form the next government at the centre after the 2019 elections, and we should prepare for years of political instability, a stock market crash, the return of scams, and back to being mocked by the rest of the world, for being the most ignorant and stupid electorate. We should also expect unprecedented vendetta politics against Modi and BJP, as well as many RW members who have openly criticised anti-Modi forces on SM.
So who will form the next GOVERNMENT OF INDIA if Modi is unable to do? In my mind and as per my calculations, Mamata Didi’s AITC will be the third largest party in Lok Sabha (with 33-37 seats), after BJP (200-206 seats) and Congress (102-108 seats). Studying this woman (some 11 years older than me) from 1985 onwards, I can guarantee that she will definitely not support Pappu as PM, and will want the post herself. Anyone wanting to wager (within the various laws of India or its 30 states) can write to me at ab@amitbagaria65.com, as I am currently offering you odds of 5:1, which means I pay you ₹2500 if you bet ₹500.
In order to keep Modi out, Pappu-led Congress will have no choice but to support her, like his dadiji supported Charan Singh in 1979, his papaji supported Chandra Shekhar in 1990, his mummyji supported Deve Gowda in 1996 and again Gujral in 1997.
So, just a few years after having the first Bengali Rashtrapati, we will most likely soon have the first Bengali Pradhanmantri, the second woman (and the first in 35 years) to get this post, which today qualifies as the third most powerful post on this planet, regardless of who the person occupying is.
Is it true that there is no alternative (TINA) for NaMo IN ORDER to avoid MoNa? Well, no, not completely – there are other alternatives.
Instead of having a full-fledged war with Pakistan, if Modi Sarkar just manages to kill (with evidence) or bring back to India either Dawood Ibrahim or Hafiz Saeed, at least five to six weeks before the next general elections, BJP will win, although with a smaller margin. In such an event, BJP on its own will definitely end up getting somewhere around 255-265 seats, thus making it impossible for any other party to form the government. Modi will become PM again, but will not be able to achieve what he wants to with such few seats. Things in NDA-3 will not be much different than NDA-2. Pappu’s Congress will be a stronger opposition than Sonia’s.
If Modi Sarkar manages to get both Dawood and Hafiz, and also does another surgical strike on Paki camps in PoK just before the elections, BJP can end up with 270-280 seats, similar to the current situation, but Modi will still not be able to implement his entire agenda.
In addition to capturing or killing Dawood and Hafiz, if Modi also manages to get either Vijay Mallya or Mehul Choksi or Nirav Modi, BJP can win 280-290 seats, a little bigger majority than the 2014 elections. If he also manages to put Chidambaram in jail, the count will go up to 290-300 seats, getting him closer to two-thirds mark with pre-poll and post-poll allies.
However, if Sonia or Pappu or Vadra are jailed, Modi can easily get a two-thirds majority, as most people who voted for him in 2014 expected him to be tough on the big fishes of corruption. If all three are behind bars by the next elections, expect 350+ seats for BJP alone.
Combined with jailing one of the three dynasty members plus Chidambaram, getting at least one scammer back from abroad and getting either Dawood or Hafiz killed or imprisoned in India, Modi could lead BJP close to 400 seats.
In my mind, all of these are much tougher to do than just kicking Pak’s ass and getting rid of that rogue nation for good. Don’t our armed forces need some real action after the Kargil War in 1999 – its been 19 long years. Won’t it help in India’s ascension as a world superpower if we show our willingness to use our military might?