As per my book “1914 NaMo or MoNa” completed in March 2018 (13 months ago) and published in April 2018, I had predicted 219 seats for NDA led by BJP, 124 seats for UPA led by Congress, and 200 seats for all others.
In my blog post of 30-Jan (65 days ago), I had predicted 212-216 seats for NDA, 169-173 seats for UPA and 156-160 seats for all others. On 19-Feb (45 days ago), I had predicted 225-229 seats for NDA, 166-170 seats for UPA and 146-150 seats for all others.
I also wrote in both of those posts that the key questions remain – who will form the government in May 2019, and who will become the next Prime Minister of India? NDA would need support from non-NDA parties to form the government.
I said on January 30 that the parties likely to support NDA will be AIADMK (7-9 seats), YSRCP (18-20 seats) and TRS (15-17 seats). This adds up to 40-46 seats. So the NDA will need just 14-16 more seats, which it should be able to manage with smaller parties and independents. Since then, AIADMK has become part of NDA. So have other Tamil Nadu based parties such as PMK and DMDK. Due to this broad coalition, now endorsed by Superstar Rajinikanth, NDA has emerged as a strong player in the largest Southern State, and this is a game-changer in the final results tally.
I had asked if UPA-3 forms the government, will Mamata Banerjee (2-time CM of West Bengal) and Mayawati (4-time CM of India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh) accept or allow the inexperienced Rahul Gandhi to become the PM? I CONCLUDED SAYING “MOST LIKELY NOT.” I wrote that either of these ladies would be more likely to become PM of a UPA-Third Front Alliance. I further wrote that there is an outside chance of MK Stalin to be the consensus candidate.
On Jan-30, I said” “UNLESS THE BJP COMES UP WITH ONE OR MORE BIG GAME CHANGERS IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS, I CONTINUE TO HAVE THE SAME OPINION THAT I EXPRESSED IN MY BOOK “1914 NaMo or MoNa” – THAT MAMATA BANERJEE WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA.”
On Feb-19, I wrote: “20 days later, what has changed? The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra has been stitched. In Tamil Nadu, BJP has stitched an interesting alliance with AIADMK and PMK. On the other hand, the”MAHAGATHBANDHAN” has not really been formed, except the BSP-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh. This obviously shows that things are not so well for an all-party front to take on Narendra Modi. However, Pulwama changes everything. If the NDA government does not act strongly, they might even fall to below 200 seats. If they do, they can cross 255-260 seats, and easily form the government. Let’s see what developments take place over the next few days.”
Let’s look at the developments of the last 45 days:
- PM Modi took very strong action against Pakistan based terrorists.
- 80-85% of Indians were (are) proud of the airstrikes, despite doubts being raised by the opposition parties, as if their buildings had been bombed by the IAF, instead of building operated by Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- Lalu Yadav’s RJD in Bihar is in serious trouble, with his sons fighting each other.
- Congress is also in trouble in Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal. It is fighting its West Bengal alliance partner (CPIM) in Kerala. It is fighting its Maharashtra alliance partner (NCP) in Gujarat.
- The laughable and ridiculous Congress Manifesto has offended many people. Read my Blog Post on this.
- The much awaited Congress-AAP alliance in Delhi is a non-starter.
- Apart from the BSP-SP alliance in UP, the Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra, the Congress-RLD alliance in Bihar and the Left-Congress alliance in West Bengal, there is no real Gathbandhan against NDA, leave alone a MAHAgathbandhan.
- BJP has taken the Chowkidaar Chor Hai jibe of Rahul Gandhi head on with its clever Main Bhi Chowkidaar campaign.
- PM Modi is still attracting far bigger crowds in his rallies than any opposition leader. Even in West Bengal, NaMo is drawing huge crowds, almost equaling Mamata Banerjee.
With just six days to go for the first phase of polling, the opposition has no conceivable way of bouncing back. On the other hand, Modi can still take one more action against Pakistani terrorists, thereby increasing his popularity.
I now predict 250-254 seats for NDA (without any anti-Pak action by Modi), 141-145 seats for UPA and 146-150 seats for all others. Therefore, NDA will be just 18-22 seats short of an absolute majority.
The BJP-led NDA will be able to form the government with support from either TRS or YSRCP, plus some minor parties and/or independents. This government will be considerably weaker than the current Modi government, but this is perhaps better for India, as BJP will lose a lot of its arrogance.