If you saw some heated TV debates yesterday related to the opposition (bogie) charge of EVM tampering, you would have heard that the 21-22 parties who met the EC (Election Commission) yesterday represented 70% vote share in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, as the BJP got just 30%.
This was another blatant lie of the opposition, just like Rafale, Justice Loya, and so many other lies.
Firstly, BJP did not fight the 2014 elections alone. They fought in a pre-poll alliance called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which got 38.56% of the votes.
From this 38.56% of 2014, subtract the 2.55% of Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP which left the NDA and you have 36.01%.
Add to that 4.81% of Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK, Nitish Kumar’s JDU, Assam’s AGP and various other Northeastern parties that are now part of NDA, and you have 40.82%.
100.00% minus 40.82% equals 59.18%. Subtract half the independent vote share and you have 57.67%. Subtract 3.39% of parties that were not part of yesterday’s delegation to the EC (including Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress party), and you have 54.28%.
See how conveniently 54% became 70%? LIES, LIES and MORE LIES. What else can sour losers resort to?
In my pre-exit polls post of Saturday (May 18), I had predicted that:
- BJP-led NDA will get between 256 and 271 seats (BJP on its own will have 206-220)
- Congress-led UPA will get 136-147 seats (Congress on its own will have 94-104)
- The yet-to-be-formed Federal Front or National Mahagathbandhan (call it whatever you wish) of AITC+BSP+SP+TDP+Left+AAP will get 75-84 seats
- 48-55 seats will be with unaligned parties and independents.
I had concluded that it was quite clear that UPA + Federal Front cannot form the government on their own. Even if both alliances/fronts do their best, they would just end up with 231 seats, still 41 short of a majority. Further, I had said that even the NDA will find it difficult to form a government without at least 10-12 seats from a new partner.
Therefore, I had said that either one or two Telugu-speaking men are going to be the Kingmaker in these elections – K Chandrashekar Rao or “KCR”, the CM of Telangana and founder of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the son of former (Late) Andhra Pradesh CM YSR Reddy of the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). Without either or both of them, there will be no government in New Delhi. In fact, KCR and his party people have been saying this for a very long time.
After a careful scrutiny of eight Exit Polls, I have decided to add to the BJP/NDA tally in the states of Maharashtra, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Odisha; while reducing some NDA seats in Tamil Nadu. I now predict that:
- BJP-led NDA will get between 275 and 309 seats (BJP on its own will have 225-250)
- Congress-led UPA will get 113-136 seats (Congress on its own will have 72-94)
- The yet-to-be-formed Federal Front or National Mahagathbandhan (call it whatever you wish) of AITC+BSP+SP+TDP+Left+AAP will get 70-80 seats
- 43-49 seats will be with unaligned parties and independents
- The NDA will form the NDA 3.0 government without the support of any other parties and Narendra Modi will once again become the Prime Minister of India
- However, either TRS or YSRCP may still want to join this government
Vande Mataram! Jai Hind!!