Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in One Week

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Spain has now crossed China in the number of Coronavirus cases; Belgium and the Netherlands have overtaken South Korea, Turkey has crossed Austria, and Brazil has overtaken Australia.

The number of cases in USA are now 75.2% more than China, whereas those in Italy are 14.7% more than China. As China keeps moving down further in terms of the number of cases, more and more people will believe in the conspiracy theory that the Coronavirus has been deliberately manufactured by the “red dragon”.

Before I move further, I want to give you some background. My Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 15th day today and I have chosen 30 countries for this study. These countries have been chosen not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 663,904 Coronavirus cases (up 9.2% from 607,883 yesterday), which is 90.3% of the 735,041 cases (up 9.4% from 672,086 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 114.06% (2.14 times) in 7 days since March 23. Cases in the 30 countries which comprise this Study have gone up by an average of 112.2% if we include China, proving again that the 30 countries chosen for my Study (now in its 15th day) are a good sample.

What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a much higher rate of 151.3% in 7 days.

Of the 30 countries in the study, the number of cases in Turkey have gone up almost 7.5 times in 7 days; those in USA have gone up more than 4 times with Philippines close to 4 times; those in Nigeria, Russia, Belgium and UK have gone up about 3.5 times; and those in Mexico have more than tripled, with Spain at nearly triple. The number of cases in 21 of these 30 countries have more than doubled in just 7 days.

The Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in reported cases) have witnessed a growth rate of 260.4% in the past 7 days; the Middle 10 countries a growth rate of 144.6%; and the Bottom 10 countries a growth rate of only 36.3%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” more than doubles to 73.2%.

Seven countries have now reported over 40,000 cases each and 11 countries have crossed 10,000 cases. The number of countries with 5000+ cases is still 16; those with 2000+ cases is now 26; while those with 1000+ cases is now 42.

Of the 351,064 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 97.9% are from the 18 countries that have reported at least 2,600 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 7 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries, than the 12 others.

Available data suggests that an estimated 6.83 million people have been tested in these 18 countries, at an average of 2.6 tests per 1,000 (up from 2.5 a day ago), with an estimated 246,000 cases performed in the last 24 hours alone.

About 9.54% of these 6.83 million people have tested positive for the infection (up from 9.06% a day ago).

An estimated 417,229 people have been tested in the remaining 12 countries. This translates to 0.1394 tests per 1,000 (up from 0.1289 a day ago), which is just 5.4% of the testing velocity of the first 18 countries.

About 3% of the 417,229 people were tested positive in these 12 countries (same as 3% a day ago), which is less than one-third of the infection rate of the first 18 countries. If we remove Russia and Vietnam from the 12, the infection rate of the remaining 10 countries goes up to 9.46%, which is almost similar to the infection rate than the first 18 countries (with 2600+ cases each).

Read my earlier post on the infection rate.

Read my earlier post on which countries have the most number of cases.

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