I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 34 days. The 28 countries chosen for this Study are because they have either reported the highest number of cases, or they are amongst the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.
Before I move on, it is very important to mention that France retrospectively reduced its number of cases from 4th April onwards due to double reporting, as claimed by its government. As a result, all growth rates (not just of France) will be low today.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 1,977,615 COVID-19 cases (up 2.82% from 1,923,356 yesterday), which is 87.4% of the total 2,262,799 cases (up 3.09% from 2,195,057 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 11—18 April with the seven day period 10—17 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.33 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.5 times. Cases in the 28 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.31 times.
I have added a new column on the extreme right of the Table for “Projected Cases in the next 7 Days”
Ignoring countries with less than 13,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.3% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.16%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 50,000 cases in the next 3 days.
India has a CDGR of 9.33% (down from 10.42%), the second highest after Russia. At this CDGR, India will cross 20,000 cases in 4 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.17 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Brazil has a CDGR of 8.02% (up from 7.87%) and will cross 50,000 cases in 5 days; Turkey 7.6% (down from 8.36%) will cross 100,000 in 2 days; UK 5.7% (down from 6.79%) will cross 125,000 in 3 days; USA 5.05% (down from 5.41%) will cross 1 million in 7 days; Sweden 4.54% (down from 4.62%) will cross 15,000 in 3 days; Belgium 4.13% (down from 4.44%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; Netherlands 4.03% (down from 4.3%) will cross 40,000 in 7 days; France 3.26% (down from 3.81%) will cross 175,000 in 6 days; Iran 2.47% (down from 2.64%) will cross 100,000 in 9 days; Spain 2.38% (slightly up from 2.37%) will cross 200,000 in 3 days; Italy 2.25% (down from 2.35%) will cross 200,000 in 7 days; Germany 2.11% (down from 2.25%) will cross 150,000 in 3 days; Switzerland 1.35% (down from 1.45%) will cross 30,000 in 8 days; and Austria 0.9% (down from 1.19%) will cross 15,000 in 3 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 4% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 9.14%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 4.79%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 1.92%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.21%.
Of the 474,396 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 94.4% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 5,631 tests per million people), than the 14 others (estimated 644 tests per million). One good thing is that the bottom 14 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.
See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths
See Post on Highest Growth in Deaths
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.268 million cases
- The global death toll is over 155,000
- India has reached 14,728 cases and 497 deaths as per covid19india.org
- USA became the first country to cross 700,000 cases
- Netherlands became the 14th country to cross 30,000 cases
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 16 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 23 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 29 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
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43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
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46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
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49 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- Spain became the third country (after USA and Italy) to cross 20,000 deaths
- Iran became the seventh country to cross 5,000 deaths and Brazil the eleventh to cross 2,000 cases
- 5 countries have 12,500+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 19 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)