If you look at this graph of the last eight Lok Sabha elections held in the past 30 years, you will see that the Congress got an average of only 156.5 seats (28.7% of the total 545 Lok Sabha seats), and BJP got an almost same average of 155.6 seats (28.6% of total). Between them, the two real national party got just 57.3% of the seats, while the remaining 42.7% of the seats went to others – mostly regional parties.
In 1999, the other parties had 36.8% more seats than the BJP, which formed the government. In 2004, the other parties had 80.7% more seats than the Congress, which formed the government. In fact, in 2004, the “others” were just 10 seats short of a majority on their own, yet could not form the government.
The only time the “others” formed the government was under HD Deve Gowda in 1996, after the 15-day BJP government (some say 13-day) of Atal Bihari Vajpayee fell, being unable to prove its majority on the floor of the house. Deve Gowda’s government could not complete one year, due to infighting between its constituents. IK Gujral was then chosen Prime Minister. Even he could not complete a year, due to the same reasons.
Let’s look at the scenario in the last 20 years, during which we had five general elections. Congress got an average of only 130 seats (23.9% of the total seats), BJP got an average of 180 seats (33% of total), while the remaining 43.1% of Lok Sabha seats went to others – mostly regional parties.
Some things become pretty clear:
- Regional parties are unable to form a government even for one year, as they have different agendas and goals – which are mostly meant for their own state’s electorate, and not for INDIA as a whole.
- With an average of just 130 seats in the last five elections (20 years), Congress is not the party of choice for WE THE PEOPLE of India.
- That leaves BJP. But even BJP cannot be called a truly national party, without a proper presence in the South. Therefore, BJP must form strong regional alliances in all four southern states except Karnataka – that is, in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala. These four states have 101 Lok Sabha seats, and without a strong presence here, BJP cannot win in 2019.
AFTER A GAP OF 23 YEARS, WE ARE HEADED FOR ANOTHER MOTLEY COALITION OF “OTHER” PARTIES, WITH MAMATA BANERJEE’S TRINAMOOL CONGRESS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE LARGEST AMONG THEM.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEN, YOU KNOW AS WELL AS ME…