In my book 1914 NaMo or MoNa (written Feb 2018; published Apr 2018), I had predicted 219 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections for NDA led by BJP; 124 seats for the UPA led by Congress; and 200 seats for other unaffiliated parties such as SP, BSP, AITC, AIADMK, TRS, YSRCP and others.
Today, 11 months later, not much has changed for the BJP-led NDA. I still predict 214 seats (loss of 5). However, Congress-led UPA goes up to 153 seats (up by 29), primarily because of the alliance with DMK in Tamil Nadu and with Chandra Babu Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh. Consequently, unaffiliated parties come down to 176 (loss of 24).
You can see the state-wise predictions in the image. The detailed analysis (based on surveys carried out then) are of course available in the book 1914 NaMo or MoNa, which is also available on Amazon, Flipkart, Infibeam, etc.
Being the single-largest party (BJP) as well as the single-largest pre-poll alliance (NDA), will NDA be able to form the government? I still don’t think so. The magic mark to form the government is 272. NDA will be 58 seats short. Even if its long-time ally Shiv Sena and AIADMK support it, NDA will still be 34 seats short, and not enough parties ready to support BJP’s “nationalist” agenda.
So who will be the next Prime Minister?
Read more about it in 1914 NaMo or MoNa as my views on this subject have not really changed much in these ii months.