Do you agree that the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections have been the toughest to call in recent memory?
Is there an Anti-Modi wave or a Pro-Modi wave? Or is there no wave at all?
Is Narendra Modi still the biggest factor?
Will the Bua-Bhatija Gathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh between Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party (which the PM refers to as mahamilawat in his rallies/speeches) be the biggest factor in the defeat to Modi, BJP and NDA, or will it be Didi’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal?
Will the East and South define these elections, or will it still be the North and West, like it was in 2014?
Here is my final take on this subject before the Exit Polls are out – not sure whether Exit Polls will be close to the actual results or not.
There has to be a wave: Either an Anti-Modi Wave or a Pro-Modi Wave.
Going by the crowds in the PM’s rallies, there seems to be a Pro-Modi wave. But going be the semi-confidence being shown by leaders and spokespersons of many opposition parties, there seems to be an Anti-Modi wave. My take is given in the chart with figures.
If there is an Anti-Modi wave, NDA will end up with less than 200 seats. In this scenario, the combined opposition will form the government, not the UPA. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee will be the next PM, as I had already predicted 14 months ago in my book 1914 NaMo or MoNa.
If there is a Pro-Modi wave, NDA will end up with almost 300 seats, about 10% less than in 2014. In this scenario, Modi will become the first non-Congress PM to get elected for two terms.
Yes, readers, in my mind, there is going to be a 100-seat difference, depending which way the wind is blowing across 29 states and 7 UT’s. And yes, this has been the toughest election to call.