After my post of the past Wednesday (May 15), many readers wrote to me that the projections I had given for an ANTI-MODI or a PRO-MODI wave were too varied, as either wave could be different state-by-state, or even constituency-by-constituency. They also said that, if any particular candidate was very strong, a general wave did not matter. They wanted me to write another post considering all these factors. I must admit that they were absolutely right.
It is, however, still true that the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections have been the toughest to call in recent memory.
It is also true that Narendra Modi has been the biggest factor in 2019, just as he was in the 2014 elections.
The question still remains whether the Bua-Bhatija Gathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh between Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party (which the PM refers to as mahamilawat in his rallies/speeches) may be the biggest factor in the defeat to Modi, BJP and NDA.
It is also pertinent to consider whether Mamata Didi’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal holds its fort or will be routed, as many “neutral” political pundits and journalists are now saying.
Here is my FINAL FINAL take on this subject before the Exit Polls are out – not sure whether Exit Polls will be close to the actual results or not.
PLEASE LOOK AT THE STATE-WISE PROJECTIONS IN THE IMAGE.
I now predict that:
- BJP-led NDA will get between 256 and 271 seats (BJP on its own will have 206-220)
- Congress-led UPA will get 136-147 seats (Congress on its own will have 94-104)
- The yet-to-be-formed Federal Front or National Mahagathbandhan (call it whatever you wish) of AITC+BSP+SP+TDP+Left+AAP will get 75-84 seats
- 48-55 seats will be with unaligned parties and independents.
These projections are somewhat (but not very) different than what I had already predicted 14 months ago in my popular book 1914 NaMo or MoNa but then, so much has changed during these 14 months.
Based on the numbers projected, it is quite clear that UPA + Federal Front cannot form the government on their own. Even if both alliances/fronts do their best as per the table, they are just ending up with 231 seats, still 41 short of a majority.
Even the NDA will find it difficult to form a government without at least 10-12 seats from a new partner.
Therefore, either one or two Telugu-speaking men are going to be the Kingmaker in these elections – NO, Chandrababu Naidu will not be one of them. The two I am talking about are K Chandrashekar Rao or “KCR”, the CM of Telangana and founder of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the son of former (Late) Andhra Pradesh CM YSR Reddy of the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP).
Without either or both of them, there will be no government in New Delhi. In fact, KCR and his party people have been saying this for a very long time.
Is your heart pounding faster as May 23 gets closer?