There were at least nine (9) Exit Polls conducted for the 2019 Elections, if not more. Which Exit Poll was the closest to the actual results?
The NewsX – Neta APP Exit Poll was the farthest from the actual results, and I had predicted this in one of my previous posts, when I had given the average of all 8 exit polls excluding this one.
The ABP News – AC Nielsen Exit Poll was off by 27.4%.
The News Nation Exit Poll was off by 23.4%.
The Republic TV – CVoter Exit Poll was off by 23%.
Despite Arnab Goswami’s contrary claims, the Republic TV – Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll was also off by 15.7%.
So, which were the 3 closest Exit Polls? While the India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll got the national numbers 100% right, the News 24 – Today’s Chanakya poll was just 0.86% off and the News18 – IPSOS poll was about 5% off.
Therefore, we have to compare the state-wise predictions between these 3 polls, to see which was actually the most accurate. Look at the chart, which compares the actual results with the 3 Exit Polls which were closest to the actual results.
India Today – Axis My India got 16 states and the national numbers right. They also got 94.1% of the 542 seats right. News24 -Today’s Chanakya got 13 right, whereas News18 – IPSOS got only 7 right.
Very clearly, this time, Axis My India beat Today’s Chanakya which was the closest in the 2014 elections. Is this because they polled the largest number of people – around 7.5 lakh? In my mind, the answer is – “YES”.
Congratulations to Pradeep Gupta, Mukesh Kabra, Ashish Gupta and the entire Axis My India team. Congratulations also to India Today Group, which not only must have paid for this massive poll, but also for bringing us the best analysis this election season.