Coronavirus Growth in 72 Hours

Posted by

The Table with data from 30 countries (UAE has now been excluded to make it an even number of 30, which can be divided into 2 or even into 3, for easier comparisons) comprises a total of 443,188 Coronavirus cases, which is 91% of the 486,825 cases reported worldwide until a few minutes ago, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

While global Coronavirus (also known as COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) cases have grown 39.6% just in the last 72 hours (3 days) alone, the total number of cases in these 30 countries have grown at an average of 41.7% if we include China, once again proving that these 30 countries are a good sample for the daily statistical study that I have been conducting now for 11 days.

However, one thing still continues to be alarming and that is, if we EXCLUDE CHINA, the cases in 30 countries have grown at a much higher rate of 56.2% in 72 hours.

Four of the 30 countries (Turkey, USA, Spain, and Russia) have reported more than a 90% increase in the number of cases in the last 3 days alone – yes, finally Russian numbers are growing. Another 4 of the 30 countries (Belgium, Philippines, Indonesia, and Nigeria) have reported over 70% increase. An additional 6 of the 30 countries (UK, Austria, Brazil, Australia, India, and Bangladesh) have reported over 60% increase; 5 (Germany, France, Malaysia, Netherlands, and Mexico) have reported over 50% increase; 2 (Switzerland and Thailand) have reported over 40% increase; 4 (Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, and Sweden) have reported over 30% increase; and 2 of the 30 countries (Italy and Vietnam) have reported over 25% increase in the last 3 days.

Yes, 19 of the 30 countries in my DATA ANALYTICS STUDY (in its eleventh day today) have reported increases of more than 50% in the number of Coronavirus cases REPORTED IN JUST 3 DAYS and 27 of the 30 countries have reported increases of between 25.4% and 96.8% 

Japan has reported a growth of 18.7%. Only 2 of the 30 countries (China and South Korea) have lower growth rates than 18% – in fact, much, much lower, with China only at 0.24% and South Korea at 3.12%. As both these countries were amongst the first to report high infection rates, could this mean anything other than the fact that they have done much more testing than the countries that started somewhat or much later?

Of the 130,348 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 48 hours, as many as 127,798 cases (or 98%) are from the 18 countries that have reported at least 2,000 cases. This only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries, than the 12 others. Available data suggests that an estimated 5.359 million people have been tested in these 18 countries, with an estimated 243,000 cases performed in the last 24 hours alone. About 8.13% of these 5.359 million people have tested positive for the infection. An average of 2.039 people per 1,000 have been tested in these 18 countries.

On the other hand, an estimated 302,695 people (0.1047 per 1,000, much much lower than the average of 2.039 per 1,000 in the first 18 countries) have been tested in 11 of the remaining 12 countries (testing data is still not available for Egypt), with only 2.42% being tested positive. India is one of these 11 countries, with a test rate of an abysmal 0.0184 per 1,000 and 2.02% of the 25,144 people being tested positive.

Why do these 11 countries have only 2.42% people being tested positive, as against 8.13% in the 18 countries which have reported at least 2,000 cases? Once again, the culprits are Russia and Vietnam (with UAE now removed), as I wrote in earlier posts. If we remove Russia and Vietnam, the balance 9 countries have a 7.97% positive test rate, a very similar infection rate as the first 18 countries.

I’m going to write another post a little later today on infection rate (% tested positive) and death rate for these 30 countries. Watch out for it.


Leave a Reply