India Coronavirus already witnessing a Hockey Stick Growth

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Do you know what “Hockey Stick Growth” means? Actually, it has very little to do with India’s national sport.

It is a term used to describe a revenue growth pattern that many successful startups have achieved. It typically outlines where the startup begins, their first couple of years hustling, and then a turning point. The turning point is where the company starts to grow, and when there’s no turning back.

Many entrepreneurs see flat linear growth when starting a new business before they see any drastic changes. This flat or stagnant growth is the blade part of the hockey stick and the rapid growth is the actual stick, or the handle which which the player actually holds the hockey stick.

It is very important to understand that almost all types of epidemics (or pandemics) grow exponentially – like a hockey stick – and not in a linear way.

After a flat growth for 21 days from the 15th February (when India started reporting Coronavirus cases on a daily basis) to the 7th of March, India is now witnessing rapid growth. Thus, we can treat the 7th of March as the turning point, or “D-Day“, to use the most famous date of World War II.

Look at the changes that are happening on almost a daily basis since India’s D-Day. The image is of course the best telltale example, but the numbers on the Table on the left are more important. The fourth column in the Table is the 7-day CDGR (Compounded Growth Rate). Obviously, it only starts on 13th of March in the Table, as that is 7 days from the first day on the Table. Hope I’m not confusing you.

While it may not be easy to understand the moving numbers just by looking at the fourth column (7-day CGR), it will be far easier to understand the impact of the disease by looking at the last column of the Table, which gives the 5-Day-Moving-Average of the Compounded Growth Rate. Here, you can see how the numbers quickly move up from the 15% levels to the 16% levels to the 17% levels and so on to the 20% levels in just 5 days. This is where the hockey stick is becoming as straight as possible.

What can we assume or deduce from the 5-Day-Moving-Average of the Compounded Growth Rate? I will explain that in a later post, hopefully today itself. Right now, it’s time for me to do my daily DATA ANALYTICS STUDY and post that ASAP.

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