Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 4 Days

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The Table with data from 30 countries comprises a total of 498,938 Coronavirus cases, which is 91% of the 548,807 cases reported worldwide until a few minutes ago, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

USA now has the most COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) cases, having surpassed both Italy and China in the last 24 hours. Seven countries (including Spain, Germany, Iran and France) have reported over 29,000 cases each; and 13 countries (including Switzerland, UK, South Korea, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria) have reported over 7,000 cases each. The number of countries with 2000+ cases is now 24; those with 1000+ cases is 37; while those with 500+ cases is 53.

While the total number of Coronavirus cases globally have grown by 57.6% just in the last 96 hours (4 days) alone, the cases in these 30 countries have grown at an average of 59.5% if we include China. This is another proof that these 30 countries are a good sample for the daily statistical study that I have been conducting now for 12 days.

What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a much higher rate of 80.2% in 96 hours. Furthermore, if we both China as well as South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries  have grown at 83.3%.

Of the 30 countries in the study, the number of cases in Turkey have almost tripled, whereas those in USA have gone up almost 2.5 times.

The Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in reported cases) have witnessed a growth rate of 130.7% in the past four days; the Middle 10 countries a growth rate of 82.3%; and the Bottom 10 countries a growth rate of only 19.9%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” more than doubles to 40.1%.

Of the 186,098 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 4 days, as many as 182,533 cases (or 98.1%) are from the 18 countries that have reported at least 2,000 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts over the past four days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries, than the 12 others.

Available data suggests that an estimated 5.624 million people have been tested in these 18 countries, with an estimated 265,000 cases performed in the last 24 hours alone. About 8.72% of these 5.624 million people have tested positive for the infection (up from 8.13% a day ago). An average of 2.14 people per 1,000 have been tested in these 18 countries (up from 2.04 a day ago).

An estimated 343,155 people have been tested in the remaining 12 countries. This translates to 0.1147 tests per 1,000, which is just 5.36% of the testing velocity of the first 18 countries. About 2.56% of people were tested positive, which is less than one-third of the infection rate of the first 18 countries. If we remove Russia and Vietnam from the 12, the infection rate of the remaining 10 countries goes up to 8.64%.

India is one of the 12 countries, with a testing velocity of an abysmal 0.0196 per 1,000 and 2.89% of the 26,798 people being tested positive. India conducted only 1,654 tests in the last 24 hours (1.2 tests per million people), compared with 106,769 tests in USA (324.5 per million), 36,615 tests in Italy (604.7 per million), and 30,685 tests in Russia (210.4 per million). In fact, of the 30 countries, India is No.4 from the bottom (beating Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia) in terms of testing velocity (tests per 1,000 or tests per million people). Even Pakistan has a better testing velocity.

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