Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 8 days

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The world now has over 802,800 Coronavirus cases (at 12:40 pm UTC today) and the death toll is nearing 40,000.

The number of cases in USA is now more than double that of China, but State Governors and City Mayors are preventing President Trump and the federal government from doing a nationwide lockdown, saying that he does not have the legal authority from doing so. And they are right, as USA is a highly federated republic, with the federal government having very limited powers of what it can enact in states.

Read yesterday’s post on lockdowns HERE.

Read yesterday’s post on Coronavirus spread in USA HERE.

Italy now has almost 25% more cases than China and Spain almost 16% more cases. Austria (with 9,920 cases) is poised to become the 13th country with 10,000+ cases within the next 24 hours. Russia and the Philippines are now amongst 30 countries with 2000+ cases; Luxembourg (1,988 cases), Ecuador (1,966 cases) and Japan (1,953 cases) will soon join that list.

The Mortality Rate in Germany has doubled in the last 6 days. The number of deaths in France have crossed 3,000, making France the fifth country with 3000+ deaths.

Read yesterday’s post on Mortality Rates.

Before I move further, I want to give you some background. My Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 16th day today and I have chosen 30 countries for this study. These countries have been chosen not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 722,797 Coronavirus cases (up 8.9% from 663,904 yesterday), which is 90.4% of the total 799,724 cases (up 8.8% from 735,041 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 2.33 times in 8 days. Cases in the 30 countries which comprise this Study have gone up by an average of 2.31 if we include China, proving again that the 30 countries chosen for my Study (now in its 16th day) are a good sample. What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a much higher rate of 2.76 times in 8 days.

Of the 30 countries in the study, the number of cases in Turkey have gone up 7.76 times in 8 days. That’s a very high compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) of 31.16%, begging the obvious question – “Is Turkey going to be the next epicenter of Coronavirus?” At the same growth rate, Turkey will have 94,836 cases in the next 8 days.

The number of cases in Russia and the Philippines have gone up about 4.3 times in 8 days (CDGR of 23.3%); those in USA have gone up 3.69 times (CDGR of 21.3%); UK 2.9 times (CDGR of 18.5%); Belgium 2.76 times; Mexico 2.46 times; Spain and Brazil more than 2 times; and Australia almost 2 times.

The number of cases in India have gone up 1.85 times in 8 days, which is a CDGR of 14%. At this rate, India will have 5000+ cases by April 10 and 10,000+ cases by April 15. Let’s hope that the 21-day Lockdown ensures that this does not happen. In terms of the rank in the total number of cases in all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.38.

Cases in the Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in number of cases) have grown 4.1 times in 8 days; 2.65 times in the Middle 10 countries; and 1.41 times in the Bottom 10 countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 1.82 times.

Seven countries have over 40,000 cases each and 12 countries have crossed 10,000 cases. The number of countries with 5000+ cases is still 16; those with 2000+ cases is now 30 (up from 26 yesterday); while those with 1000+ cases is now 44 (up from 42 yesterday).

Of the 409,377 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 8 days, 98.5% are from the 20 countries that have reported at least 2,000 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 8 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 20 countries, than the 10 others.

Information on number of tests conducted in each country has been very erratic. Some countries have not reported data for last 2 days, some for last 3 or 4 or 5 days, and some for even the last 12-13 days.

However, based on extrapolation of older data and the “Infection Rate”, an estimated 7.971 million people have been tested in these 20 countries, at an average of 2.766 tests per 1,000. About 8.93% of these 7.971 million people have tested positive for the infection. If we remove Russia from the list, the Infection Rate of the other 19 countries goes up to 9.2%.

Read my earlier post on the infection rate.

An estimated 163,560 people have been tested in the remaining 10 countries. This translates to 0.0597 tests per 1,000, which is just 2.16% of the testing velocity of the first 20 countries.

About 6.46% of the 163,560 people were tested positive in these 10 countries. If we remove Vietnam from the 10, the Infection Rate of the other 9 countries goes up to 8.33%, which is almost similar to the infection rate than the first 20 countries (with 2000+ cases each).

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