This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 19th day today and I have chosen 30 countries for this study. These countries have been chosen not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.
The Table with COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 924,866 Coronavirus cases (up 8.1% from 855,722 yesterday), which is 89.8% of the total 1,029,467 cases (up 8.3% from 950,430 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 3 times in 11 days. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by an average of 2.96 times if we include China, proving again that the 30 countries chosen for my Study (now in its 19th day) are a good sample. What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a higher rate of 3.64 times in 11 days.
The number of cases in Turkey have gone up almost 13.67 times in 11 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 7 days.
Cases in Russia have gone up 8.47 times in 11 days (projected to cross 100,000 in 16 more days at the same growth rate); Philippines up 6.62 times (projected 25,000 in 12 more days); USA up 6 times (projected >1 million in 8 more days); UK up 4.93 times (projected 100,000 in 7 more days); Brazil up 4.22 times (projected 25,000 in 8 more days); and Belgium up 3.93 times (projected 50,000 in 8 more days).
The number of cases in India have gone up 4.23 times in 11 days. At this growth rate, India will have 5000+ cases by 8th April and 10,000+ cases by 12th April. Let’s hope that the 21-day Lockdown ensures that this does not happen. In terms of the rank in number of cases in all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.32 (up from No.38 on 31st March).
All the projections in the preceding two paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 11 days, cases have gone up 6.86 times in the Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in number of cases); 3.67 times in the Middle 10 countries; and 1.58 times in the Bottom 10 countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.14 times.
Of the 611,946 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 11 days, 97.6% are from the 18 countries that have reported at least 4,00 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 11 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries, than the 12 others.
LATEST UPDATES (at 10:45 am UTC):
- The world now has 1,030,000+ cases
- The death toll has crossed 54,200
- USA became the first country to cross 200,000 cases around 11:00 pm IST last night and will cross 250,000 (a quarter million cases) in the next one hour. The country will most likely cross 300,000 cases by Sunday and a million cases by 11th April. Cases in USA increased 14% in the last 24 hours and deaths increased 19%
- Spain (117,710) now has more cases than Italy (115,242)
- South Korea became the 15th country with 10,000+ cases; Portugal the 16th with 9000+ cases; Brazil the 17th with 8000+ cases; and Israel the 18th with 7000+ cases
The number of countries with 5000+ cases is now 21 (up from 16 on 31st March)
31 countries have 3000+ cases
Countries with 2000+ cases is 35 (up from 30 on 31st March)
52 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on 31st March)
- France became the 4th country (after Italy, Spain, and USA) with 5000+ deaths
- 7 countries have 3000+ deaths
- 10 countries have 1000+ deaths
- 23 countries have 100+ deaths