Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 12 Days

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This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 20th day today. The 30 countries chosen for the Study are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,009,807 COVID-19 cases (up 9.2% from 924,866 yesterday), which is 89.4% of the total 1,130,114 cases (up 9.8% from 1,029,467 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 3.31 times in 12 days. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 3.23 times if we include China, proving again that the 30 countries chosen for my Study are a good sample. What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a significantly higher rate of 4 times in 12 days.

The number of cases in Turkey have gone up almost 15.93 times in 12 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 7 days.

Cases in Russia have gone up 9.8 times in 11 days (projected to cross 50,000 in 12 more days at the same growth rate); USA up 6.92 times (projected  to cross 1 million in 8 more days); Philippines up 6.81 times (projected to cross 20,000 in 11 more days); UK up 5.72 times (projected to cross 100,000 in 7 more days); Brazil up 4.96 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 7 more days); Belgium up 4.42 times (projected to cross 50,000 in 8 more days); and France up 4.13 times (projected to cross 100,000 in 2 more days)

However, one small good news is that the growth rate in almost all these countries has somewhat reduced in the past 3 days.

The number of cases in India have gone up 5.36 times in 12 days. At this growth rate, India will have 5000+ cases by 7th April and 10,000+ cases by 12th April. Let’s hope that the 21-day Lockdown ensures that this does not happen. In terms of the rank in number of cases in all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.30 (up from No.38 on 31st March).

All the projections in the preceding two paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

See my previous post on testing data.

In 12 days, cases have gone up 7.76 times in the Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in number of cases); 4.07 times in the Middle 10 countries; and 1.63 times in the Bottom 10 countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.23 times.

Of the 696,887 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 12 days, 97.6% are from the 18 countries that have reported at least 4,700 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 12 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (3.563 tests per million people), than the 12 others (only 0.1376 tests per million).

LATEST UPDATES (at 10:45 am UTC):

  • The world now has 1,133,400+ cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 60,000
  • France became the 6th country (after USA, Spain, Italy, and Germany) to cross the number of cases in China. France reported a whopping 23,060 new cases in the last 24 hours alone.
  • USA became the first country to cross 250,000 cases. The country will most likely cross 300,000 cases by Sunday and a million cases by 12th April.
  • Switzerland became the 10th country with 20,000+ cases; Belgium the 12th with 15,000+ cases; Canada the 13th with 12,500+ cases; Brazil the 17th with 9000+ cases; Israel the 18th with 7500+ cases; and Sweden the 19th with 6000+ cases
  • The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 21 (16 on 31st March)

  • 32 countries have 3000+ cases

  • 38 countries have 2000+ (up from 30 on 31st March)

  • 56 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on 31st March)

  • UK became the 7th country (after China, Italy, Spain, USA, France, and Iran) with 3000+ deaths
  • 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as 3rd April)
  • 25 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on 3rd April)

Read my post on Mortality Rates.

Read my post on Highest Growth in Deaths.

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