Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 15 days

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This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 23rd day today. The 30 countries chosen for the Study are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,216,669 COVID-19 cases (up 5.72% from 1,150,830 yesterday), which is 89.53% of the total 1,358,958 cases (up 5.78% from 1,284,754 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample. The growth of the disease in the last 2 days has been much lower than the growth seen in the past two weeks. IS THIS A GOOD SIGN OR ONLY A TEMPORARY ABERRATION?

COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 3.99 times in 15 days, while deaths have gone up 5.1 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 3.89 times. If we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a higher rate of 5.05 times in 15 days.

Turkey continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases – this should not be confused with growth in the absolute number, which is in USA. The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 23.45 times in 15 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 6 days, but I must add here that the deadline for this milestone has kept shifting by a day for the past 3 days, which is a good sign.

In the last 15 days, cases in Russia have gone up 16.12 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 7 more days at the same growth rate); USA up 9.49 times (projected  to cross 1 million in 7 more days); Philippines up 8.51 times (projected to cross 10,000 in 7 more days); UK up 8.08 times (projected to cross 100,000 in 5 more days); Brazil up 6.92 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 6 more days); Belgium up 5.53 times (projected to cross 50,000 in 7 more days); France up 5.12 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 6 more days); and Spain up 3.88 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 4 more days).

One good news is that the relative growth rate in almost all these countries has been gradually reducing in the past 6 days, thus shifting the milestones by a day, just like Turkey.

The number of cases in India have gone up 8.74 times in 15 days. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 12th April. This date has not changed in the last 5-6 days. In terms of the rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.25 (up from No.38 on 31st March). The rank has been continuously increasing due to increase in testing.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

See my previous post on Incidence Rate, Testing Rate and Infection Rate.

In 15 days, compared to the average relative growth rate of 3.89 times for all 30 countries in the Study, the number of cases have gone up 10.34 times in the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 4.84 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.8 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.53 times.

Of the 903,749 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 15 days, 97.4% are from the 18 countries that have at least 5,900 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 15 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (4015 tests per million people), than the 12 others (less than 175 tests per million).

LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):

  • The world now has over 1.362 million cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 76,000
  • Spain became the first country with an Incidence Rate of over 3/1000
  • Germany became the 4th country to cross 100,000 cases and France will cross that number in a few hours, when it reports latest data
  • Turkey became the 9th country with over 30,000 cases, Israel the 18th with over 9,000 cases, Russia the 20th with over 7,000 cases, and Pakistan the 30th with over 4,000 cases
  • The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 23 (up from 16 on 31st March)

  • 30 countries have 4000+ cases (up from 29 on 6th April)

  • 34 countries have 3000+ cases (same as 6th April)

  • 44 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on 31st March)

  • 61 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on 31st March)

  • Belgium became the ninth country with over 2,000 deaths
  • 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as 3rd April)
  • 28 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on 3rd April)

Read my post on Mortality Rates.

Read my post on Highest Growth in Deaths.

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