Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 16 days

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This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 24th day today. The 30 countries chosen for the Study are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,295,092 COVID-19 cases (up 6.45% from 1,216,669 yesterday), which is 89.5% of the total 1,446,981 cases (up 6.48% from 1,358,958 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 4.24 times in 16 days, while deaths have gone up 5.6 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 4.14 times. If we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a higher rate of 5.4 times in 16 days.

Turkey continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases (not growth in the absolute number, which is in USA). The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 26.6 times in 16 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 6 days, but I must add here that the deadline for this milestone has kept shifting by a day for the past 4 days, which is a good sign.

In the last 16 days, cases in Russia have gone up 18.8 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 6 more days at the same growth rate); USA up 10.42 times (projected  to cross 1 million cases in 7 more days); Philippines up 8.77 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 7 more days); UK up 8.72 times (projected to cross 100,000 cases in 5 more days); Brazil up 8.09 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 5 more days); Belgium up 5.88 times (projected to cross 50,000 cases in 7 more days); France up 5.81 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 6 more days); and Spain up 4.1 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 4 more days).

One good news is that the relative growth rate in all these countries (except Russia and Brazil) has been gradually reducing in the past 7 days, thus shifting the milestones by a day, just like Turkey.

The number of cases in India have gone up 9.85 times in 16 days. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 13th April. In terms of the rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.24 (up from No.38 on March 31). The rank has been continuously increasing due to increase in testing.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

See my previous post on Incidence Rate, Testing Rate and Infection Rate.

In 16 days, compared to the average relative growth rate of 4.14 times for all 30 countries in the Study, the number of cases have gone up 11.61 times in the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 5.21 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.85 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.62 times.

Of the 982,172 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 16 days, 97.4% are from the 18 countries that have at least 6,000 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 15 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (4,178 tests per million people), than the 12 others (less than 202 tests per million).

LATEST UPDATES (at 12:15 pm UTC):

  • The world now has over 1.447 million cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 83,400
  • India has 5,454 cases and 170 deaths, as per
  • USA became the first country to cross 400,000 cases
  • France became the fifth country to cross 100,000 cases, Russia and Sweden the 19th and 20th with over 8,000 cases each, Norway and Australia the 21st and 22nd with over 6,000 cases each
  • The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 28 (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 32 countries have 4000+ cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 34 countries have 3000+ cases (same as April 6)

  • 45 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 63 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • USA became the third country with over 12,500 deaths, France the fourth with over 10,000 deaths, Germany and Netherlands the ninth and tenth with over 2,000 deaths each
  • 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as April 3)
  • 14 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 29 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

Read my post on Mortality Rates

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