Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 17 days

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The world has seen the Coronavirus case count cross 1.5 million in the last 24 hours.

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 25 days. The 30 countries chosen for this particular Study (“Daily Growth”) are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,366,748 COVID-19 cases (up 5.5% from 1,295,092 yesterday), which is 89.4% of the total 1,529,084 cases (up 5.67% from 1,446,981 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 4.5 times in 17 days, while deaths have gone up 6.04 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 4.37 times. If we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a higher rate of 5.72 times in 16 days. With an extremely low increase of only 0.01 times in China and 0.163 times in South Korea, why don’t these countries inform the rest of the world how they have controlled the spread of the disease?

For the 11th day running, Turkey still continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases (not growth in the absolute number, which is in USA). The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 29.93 times in 17 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 5 days.

In the last 17 days, cases in Russia have gone up 22.13 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 5 days at the same growth rate); USA up 11.41 times (projected  to cross 1 million cases in 6 days); UK up 9.69 times (projected to cross 100,000 cases in 4 days); Brazil up 9.48 times (projected to cross 25,000 cases in 4 days); Philippines up 9.29 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 7 days); Belgium up 6.35 times (projected to cross 50,000 cases in 6 days); France up 6.05 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 5 days); Pakistan up 4.5 times (projected to cross 10,000 cases in 9 days); Spain up 4.3 times (projected to cross 200,000 cases in 3 days); and Netherlands up 3.89 times (projected to cross 50,000 cases in 10 days).

The relative growth rate in some of the above countries has been gradually reducing in the past 8 days, thus shifting the milestones by a day.

The number of cases in India have gone up 11.35 times in 17 days. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 13th April. In terms of the rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.21 (up from No.38 on March 31). The rank has been continuously increasing due to increase in testing.

All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.

See my previous post on Incidence Rate, Testing Rate and Infection Rate.

In 17 days, compared to the average relative growth rate of 4.37 times for all 30 countries in the Study, the number of cases have gone up 12.7 times in the “Top 10” countries (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 5.45 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.86 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.65 times.

Of the 1,053,828 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 17 days, 97.8% are from the 19 countries that have at least 6,000 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 17 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 19 countries (2,911 tests per million people), than the 11 others (309 tests per million).

LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):

  • The world now has over 1.533 million cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 89,700
  • India has 6,281 cases and 186 deaths, as per
  • Spain became the second country after USA to cross 150,000 cases
  • UK became the 8th country to cross 60,000 cases, Netherlands the 12th to cross 20,000, Russia the 18th to cross 10,000 and India the 24th to cross 6,000 cases
  • The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 29 (up from 16 on March 31)

  • 35 countries have 4000+ cases (up from 29 on April 6)

  • 38 countries have 3000+ cases (up from 34 on April 8)

  • 47 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 63 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • Spain became the second country with over 15,000 deaths, and UK the fifth with over 7,000 deaths
  • 10 countries have 2000+ deaths (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
  • 25 countries have 200+ deaths
  • 33 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

Read my post on highest growth in number of deaths

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