Coronavirus Data Analytics Study – Worldwide Growth in 9 Days

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The world now has over 874,600 Coronavirus cases (at 11:40 pm UTC today) and the death toll has crossed 43,400.

The number of cases in USA are likely to cross 200,000 before midnight Indian time and the death toll has crossed 4,000, but State Governors and City Mayors are preventing President Trump and the federal government from doing a nationwide lockdown, saying that he does not have the legal authority from doing so.

Read my post on lockdowns.

Read my post on Coronavirus spread in USA.

Spain has become the third country (after USA and Italy) to cross 100,000 cases; France the sixth country to cross 50,000 cases; and Austria the 13th country with 10,000+ cases; with South Korea only 113 short of 10,000. Japan, Luxembourg, and Pakistan now have 2000+ cases each.

Iran has become the sixth country with a death toll of over 3,000 and Netherlands the eight with over 1,000 deaths.

Read my post on Mortality Rates.

Before I move further, I want to give you some background. My Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 17th day today and I have chosen 30 countries for this study. These countries have been chosen not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.

The Table with COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2 or 2019-nCoV) data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 787,124 Coronavirus cases (up 8.9% from 722,797 yesterday), which is 90.2% of the total 872,756 cases (up 9.1% from 799,724 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 2.54 times in 9 days. Cases in the 30 countries which comprise this Study have gone up by an average of 2.52 if we include China, proving again that the 30 countries chosen for my Study (now in its 17th day) are a good sample. What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China, the cases in the remaining 29 countries have grown at a much higher rate of 3.04 times in 9 days.

Of the 30 countries, the number of cases in Turkey have gone up almost 10 times in 9 days. That’s a very high compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) of 30.46%, begging the obvious question – “Is Turkey going to be the next epicenter of Coronavirus?” At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 148,000 cases in the next 9 days.

The number of cases in Russia have gone up 5.34 times in 9 days (CDGR of 22.78%); those in the Philippines have gone up 4.84 times (CDGR of 21.65%); USA 4.38 times (CDGR of 20.56%); Nigeria 3.63 times; UK 3.43 times; and Belgium 3.11 times.

The number of cases in India have gone up 2.46 times in 9 days, which is a CDGR of 14.76%. At this rate, India will have 5000+ cases by April 9 and 10,000+ cases by April 14. Let’s hope that the 21-day Lockdown ensures that this does not happen. In terms of the rank in the total number of cases in all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.36 (up from No.38 yesterday).

In 9 days, cases have gone up 4.63 times in the Top 10 countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest growth rate in number of cases); 2.99 times in the Middle 10 countries; and 1.48 times in the Bottom 10 countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 1.93 times.

Six countries have over 52,000 cases each and 13 countries have crossed 10,000 cases. The number of countries with 5000+ cases is now 18 (up from 16 yesterday); those with 2000+ cases is now 34 (up from 30 yesterday); while those with 1000+ cases is now 47 (up from 44 yesterday).

Of the 474,204 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 8 days, 98.5% are from the 20 countries that have reported at least 2,300 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 9 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 20 countries, than the 10 others.

Information on number of tests conducted in each country has been very erratic. Some countries have not reported data for last 2 days, some for last 3 or 4 or 5 days, and some for even the last 12-15 days.

However, based on extrapolation of older data and the “Infection Rate”, an estimated 8.653 million people have been tested in these 20 countries (up from 7.971 million yesterday), at an average of 3 tests per 1,000. About 8.96% of these 8.653 million people have tested positive for the infection. If we remove Russia from the list (as the Infection Rate in Russia is unusually low at just 0.52%), the Infection Rate of the other 19 countries goes up to 9.52%.

Read my earlier post on the Infection Rate.

An estimated 175,207 people have been tested in the remaining 10 countries (up from 163,560 yesterday). This translates to 0.064 tests per 1,000, which is just 2.13% of the testing velocity of the first 20 countries. About 6.7% of these 175,207 people were tested positive in these 10 countries. If we remove Vietnam from the 10 (as like Russia, Vietnam also has an unusually low inflation rate of just 0.54%), the Infection Rate of the other 9 countries goes up to 8.47%.

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