This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 22nd day today. The 30 countries chosen for the Study are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.
The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,150,830 COVID-19 cases (up 5.55% from 1,090,284 yesterday), which is 89.6% of the total 1,284,754 cases (up 5.8% from 1,213,897 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample. I must add here that the growth in the last 24 hours has been much lower than the growth seen in the past two weeks. IS THIS A GOOD SIGN OR ONLY A TEMPORARY ABERRATION?
COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 3.77 times in 14 days, while deaths have gone up 4.74 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 3.68 times. If we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a higher rate of 4.75 times in 14 days.
Turkey continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases – this should not be confused with growth in the absolute number, which is in USA. The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 20.9 times in 14 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 6 days.
In the last 14 days, cases in Russia have gone up 13.48 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 8 more days at the same growth rate); USA up 8.61 times (projected to cross 1 million in 7 more days); UK up 7.41 times (projected to cross 100,000 in 5 more days); Brazil up 6.3 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 6 more days); Belgium up 5.12 times (projected to cross 50,000 in 7 more days); France up 4.8 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 7 more days); and Spain up 3.69 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 4 more days).
One good news is that the relative growth rate in almost all these countries has been gradually reducing in the past 5 days.
The number of cases in India have gone up 7.66 times in 14 days. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 12th April. In terms of the rank in the number of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.27 (up from No.38 on 31st March). The rank has been continuously increasing due to increase in testing.
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 14 days, cases have gone up 9.47 times in the “Top 10” countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 4.62 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.75 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.45 times.
Of the 837,910 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 14 days, 97.5% are from the 18 countries that have at least 5,750 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 14 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (3837 tests per million people), than the 12 others (only 166.7 tests per million).
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):
- The world now has 1.287 million cases
- The global death toll has crossed 70,000
- Germany became the 4th country to cross 100,000 cases, Iran the 7th country with 60,000+ cases, Belgium the 11th with over 20,000 cases, Sweden the 19th with 7000+ cases and Russia the 20th with 6000+ cases
The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 22 (up from 16 on 31st March)
29 countries have 4000+ cases
34 countries have 3000+ cases (up from 33 on 5th April)
41 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on 31st March)
60 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on 31st March)
- Spain became the 2nd country (after Italy) with over 13,000 deaths and France the 4th (after USA) with over 8,000 deaths
- 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as 3rd April)
- 26 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on 3rd April) but this number will see at least 2 additions in the next 24 hours