Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide in the last 14 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
While the daily growth rate in the number of cases showed a zig-zag curve (ups and downs) for 6 days from 5th April to 10th April, it had 3 days of continuous decline from 11th to 13th April followed by 3 days of continuous increases from 14th to 16th April. Thereafter, we have seen 2 days of declines on 17th and 18th April.
What is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA has been showing a continuously declining or flat curve for all 14 days from 5th to 18th April. This is a very good sign and shows that the disease may be SLOWLY on its way out.
The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph has been swinging wildly like a pendulum. This may be due to some countries reporting deaths retrospectively on 7th and 14th April. Even in the case of deaths, the 5DMA has been showing a gradual decline, except small upticks on 14th and 17th April.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the strict social distancing measures (like lockdown) imposed on over half the world’s population. Who’s to tell what could happen if such measures are lifted or eased.
I will do a separate post on this subject about India.
LATEST UPDATES (at 03:45 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.331 million cases
- The global death toll is over 160,700
- India has reached 15,723 cases and 521 deaths as per covid19india.org
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 30 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
51 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 20 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)