Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India in the last 14 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
The daily growth rate in the number of cases shows a zig-zag curve (ups and downs) for the entire period of 14 days. However, what is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA has been showing a continuously declining or flat curve, except for small upticks on 10th and 13th April. This is a very good sign and shows that the disease may be SLOWLY on its way out.
The story with the number of deaths is not much different. While the daily growth curve has been swinging up and down much more than the growth curve for cases, the 5DMA in the cases of deaths has also been showing a gradual decline, except small upticks on 9th and 11th April.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the national lockdown, now in its 26th day. Who’s to tell what could happen when the lockdown is lifted on 4th May or some of the strict social distancing measures are eased from tomorrow.
LATEST UPDATES (at 05:45 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.332 million cases
- The global death toll is over 160,700
- India has reached 15,723 cases and 521 deaths as per covid19india.org
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 30 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
51 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 20 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)