I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 35 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 13,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,050,541 COVID-19 cases, which is 90.6% of the total 2,262,799 cases reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT yesterday, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
The 28 countries in the Table have an “Infection Rate” of 0.392/1000 residents. However, if we leave China out (as its data is considered unreliable by almost everybody), the Infection Rate goes up to 0.518/1000.
The average Infection Rate of the “Top 6” countries — all in Europe — is 2.99/1000. That means almost 3 out of every 1,000 residents in these 6 countries got infected with the Coronavirus. USA comes next with 2.158/1000. The next 5 countries age again European and their average Infection Rate is 1.681/1000. Overall, these 12 countries, or the “Top 12” (11 of them European) have an average Infection Rate of 2.263/1000.
The “Bottom 6” countries — all considered as “Third World” Countries — have an average Infection Rate of 0.0162/1000. India (0.0108/1000) is part of these 6, and so are our neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh. Does this mean that these companies have managed to avoid or control the virus? No, of course not. If you look at the last column, the simple conclusion is that these 6 countries have done far fewer tests (average 236 per million) than the 12 in the previous para (average 13,074 per million). Even the term far fewer is a huge understatement, as the average number of tests done in the Bottom 6 is just 1.81% of the Top 12.
What would be the scenario if the Bottom 6 countries would have done the same no. of tests per million as the Top 12, or 30.661 million tests instead of just 553,918 which they have done till date? For this, you need to look at the second last column, titled “Positivity Rate”, which means the percentage of people tested positive for COVID-19 out of the total number tested. Based on the average Positivity Rate of 6.85% for the Bottom 6, they would have 2.1 million Coronavirus cases instead of just 37,948. Don’t forget that the Bottom 6 represent 30.4% of world population, while the Top 12 only represent 9.25%.
Yes, the world is going to see huge surprises if the Bottom 6 countries were to ramp up their testing 55.4 times to match the testing percentage of the Top 12.
One surprising thing is that, despite a high number of tests per million, Canada and Russia have low Infection Rates. WHY IS THAT?
LATEST UPDATES (at 09:00 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.343 million cases
- The global death toll is over 161,000
- India has reached 16,103 cases and 527 deaths as per covid19india.org
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 30 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
51 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 20 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)