I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 35 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 13,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
Because of the change in the selection criteria as mentioned in the previous paragraph, Canada, Ireland, Israel, Peru, and Portugal have now been added to the list, while Egypt, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have been deleted.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,120,666 COVID-19 cases (up 3.42% from 2,050,541 yesterday), which is 90.4% of the total 2,346,819 cases (up 3.71% from 2,262,799 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:30 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 12–19 April with the seven day period 11–18 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.32 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.47 times. Cases in the 28 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.31 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 15,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.35% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.3%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 50,000 cases in the next 2 days.
India has a CDGR of 9.16% (down from 9.33%), the second highest after Russia. At this CDGR, India will cross 20,000 cases in 3 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.17 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Brazil has a CDGR of 8.42% (up from 8.02%) and will cross 50,000 cases in 4 days; Turkey 6.74% (down from 7.6%) will cross 100,000 in 3 days; UK 5.41% (down from 5.7%) will cross 125,000 in 2 days; USA 4.77% (down from 5.05%) will cross 1 million in 7 days; Canada 4.59% (down from 5.26%) will cross 40,000 in 5 days; Belgium 3.8% (down from 4.13%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; Netherlands 3.75% (down from 4.03%) will cross 40,000 in 7 days; France 3.34% (up from 3.26%) will cross 175,000 in 5 days; Portugal 2.48% (down from 3.02%) will cross 20,000 in 2 days; Spain 2.4% (up from 2.38%) will cross 200,000 in 1 day; Iran 2.32% (down from 2.47%) will cross 90,000 in 4 days; Italy 2.08% (down from 2.25%) will cross 200,000 in 7 days; Germany 1.96% (down from 2.11%) will cross 150,000 in 3 days; and Switzerland 1.15% (down from 1.35%) will cross 30,000 in 8 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.92% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 9.02%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 4.81%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.12%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 9” goes up to 2.34%.
Of the 500,545 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 90.9% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 4,732 tests per million people excluding China), than the 14 others (estimated 729 tests per million). One good thing is that the bottom 14 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:45 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.349 million cases
- The global death toll is over 161,000
- India has reached 16,132 cases and 528 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Turkey overtook Iran to become the country with 8th highest cases and is all set to cross China very soon
- Russia became the 10th country to cross 40,000 cases
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 30 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
51 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 20 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)