Is Coronavirus on its Way Out?

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Look at the graph of the daily growth (increase) of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide in the last 10 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (10:00 am UTC) every day.

While the daily growth rate showed a huge decline of 25.8% (from 11.89% to 9.45%) on March 29, it remained almost flat on March 30, then a small decline of 6.8% on March 31, followed by an increase of 3.3% on April 1.

Thereafter, the daily growth rate had a decrease of 2.2% and 7.2% on April 2 and 3, respectively. However, this was followed by a substantial increase of 15.3% (from 8.3% to 9.8%) on April 4.

Then, on April 5 and April 6, the daily growth rate had its steepest declines (in 10 days) of 32.4% and 27.6%, respectively, followed by a negligible decline of 0.3% on April 7.

Does the curve of the last 3 days shows that the Coronavirus Pandemic is finally under control? Maybe, or maybe not. As a 3-day trend may be too low to come to any sort of long-term conclusion. However, if the disease is on its decline, one big reason is the lockdown imposed on half the world’s population.

Let us also look at the growth rates for India and see how they compare with the world. COVID-19 cases increased 21.18% on April 1, 21.09% on April 2, 24.94% on April 3, 21.59% on April 4 (decline of 13.43%), 18.01% on April 5 (decline of 16.58%), 15.55% on April 6 (decline of 13.66%, and 12.9% on April 7 (decline of 17.04%). So India has also seen 4 days of continuous and substantial declines. This augurs well for our country, and may be due to the 21-day Lockdown.

See my latest Daily Update on Worldwide Growth.

LATEST UPDATES (at 2:45 pm UTC):

  • The world now has over 1.365 million cases
  • The global death toll has crossed 76,500
  • Spain became the first country with an Incidence Rate of over 3/1000
  • Turkey became the 9th country with over 30,000 cases, Israel the 18th with over 9,000 cases, Russia the 20th with over 7,500 cases, India the 24th with over 5,000 cases and Pakistan the 30th with over 4,000 cases
  • 34 countries have 3000+ cases (same as April 6)

  • 44 countries have 2000+ cases (up from 30 on March 31)

  • 61 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on March 31)

  • USA became the third country with over 11,000 deaths and Belgium the ninth with over 2,000 deaths
  • 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as April 3)
  • 14 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 13 on April 3)
  • 28 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)

Read my post on Mortality Rates.

Read my post on Highest Growth in Deaths.

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