I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 32 days now. The 30 countries originally chosen (and used until yesterday) were because these had either reported the highest number of cases, or because they include the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam were part of the Study. Now, I have removed Australia and Malaysia, as they no longer fulfil either of that criteria. Therefore, the Study from today onwards will concentrate on 28 countries.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 1,838,639 COVID-19 cases (up 3.9% from 1,769,630 yesterday), which is 87.7% of the total 2,096,445 cases (up 4.1% from 2,014,000 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 9-16 April with the 7-day period 8-15 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.371 times in 7-days, while deaths have gone up 1.521 times. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.356 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 12,500 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.59% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.99%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 50,000 cases in the next 5 days.
India has a CDGR of 10.82% (down from 11.36%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 15,000+ cases in 2 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India has jumped to No.18 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Turkey has a CDGR of 8.89% (down from 9.68%) and will cross 80,000 cases in 2 days; Brazil 8.63% (down from 9%) will cross 50,000 cases in 7 days; UK 7.15% (down from 7.87%) will cross 100,000 cases in 1 day; USA 5.77% (down from 6.3%) will cross 1 million cases in 8 days; Belgium 4.85% (up from 5.29%) will cross 40,000 cases in 3 days; Netherlands 4.6% (down from 4.93%) will cross 30,000 cases in 2 days; France 3.92% (down from 3.98%) will cross 200,000 cases in 8 days; Iran 2.73% (up from 1.83%) will cross 80,000 cases in 1 day; Spain 2.63% (down from 2.77%) will cross 200,000 cases in 4 days; Germany 2.51% (down from 2.98%) will cross 150,000 cases in 5 days; Italy 2.45% (down from 2.62%) will cross 200,000 cases in 8 days; Switzerland 1.71% (down from 2.11%) will cross 30,000 cases in 8 days; and Austria 1.45% (down from 1.65%) will cross 15,000 cases in 3 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 4.44% for all 29 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.87%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 5.35%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.14%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.49%.
Of the 482,223 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 7 days, 96.1% are from the 16 countries that have crossed at least 12,500 cases. As I said in each of my posts over the past 23 days, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 16 countries (est. 3,496 tests per million people), than the 12 others (est. 785 tests per million). One good thing is that the last 12 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.
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Are we getting ready to say “goodbye” to Coronavirus
Why is India still seeing Zig-Zag Curves?
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:45 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.1 million cases
- The global death toll is over 136,000
- India has reached 12,968 cases and 428 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Brazil and Russia have overtaken Switzerland
- 5 countries have crossed 130,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 16 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 23 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 28 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
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39 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
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43 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
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49 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
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57 countries have crossed 2,000 cases (up from 36 on April 3)
- 5 countries have 12,500+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 44 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on April 3)