I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 33 days. The 28 countries chosen for this Study are because they have either reported the highest number of cases, or they are amongst the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 1,923,356 COVID-19 cases (up 4.61% from 1,838,639 yesterday), which is 87.6% of the total 2,195,057 cases (up 4.7% from 2,096,445 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the 7-day period 10—17 April with the 7-day period 9—16 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.36 times in 7-days, while deaths have gone up 1.52 times. Cases in the 28 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.35 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 12,500 cases, in the last 7 days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 15.16% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.59%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 50,000 cases in the next 4 days.
India has a CDGR of 10.42% (down from 10.82%), the second highest after Russia. At this growth rate, India will have 15,000+ cases in 1 day. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is at No.18 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Turkey has a CDGR of 8.36% (down from 8.89%) and will cross 100,000 cases in the next 4 days; Brazil 7.87% (down from 8.63%) will cross 50,000 cases in 7 days; UK 6.79% (down from 7.15%) crossed 100,000 cases as predicted yesterday and will cross 125,000 cases in 3 days; USA 5.41% (down from 5.77%) will cross 1 million cases in 8 days; France 4.94% (up from 3.92%) will cross 200,000 cases in 4 days; Sweden 4.62% (down from 5.1%) will cross 15,000 cases in 4 days; Belgium 4.44% (down from 4.85%) will cross 40,000 cases in 3 days; Netherlands 4.3% (down from 4.6%) will cross 30,000 cases in 1 day; Iran 2.64% (down from 2.73%) will cross 80,000 cases in 1 day; Spain 2.37% (down from 2.63%) will cross 200,000 cases in 4 days; Italy 2.35% (down from 2.45%) will cross 200,000 cases in 8 days; Germany 2.25% (down from 2.51%) will cross 150,000 cases in 4 days; Switzerland 1.45% (down from 1.71%) will cross 30,000 cases in 9 days; and Austria 1.19% (down from 1.45%) will cross 15,000 cases in 3 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 7 days, compared to the average CDGR of 4.33% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.44%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 5.25%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 1.99%. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.29%.
Of the 493,438 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last 7 days, 94.4% are from the 14 countries with the most no. of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (est. 5,427 tests per million people), than the 14 others (est. 609 tests per million). One good thing is that the bottom 14 countries have significantly improved their testing over the past several days.
See Post on Recoveries vs. Deaths
Are we getting ready to say “goodbye” to Coronavirus
Why is India still seeing Zig-Zag Curves?
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):
- The world has almost crossed 2.2 million cases
- The global death toll is over 147,700
- India has reached 13,703 cases and 457 deaths as per covid19india.org
- UK became the 6th country to cross 100,000 cases
- Russia crossed Netherlands, Canada and Brazil to the No.11 rank in cases
- 5 countries have crossed 130,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 16 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 23 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 28 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
-
41 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
-
45 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
-
49 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- Belgium became the 6th country to cross 5,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 12,500+ deaths (up from 2 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)