Before I start, let me say that I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 43 days.
Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
Compared to the previous day, the daily growth rate in number of cases went down on April 13, followed by 3 consecutive days of increases on April 14, 15, and 16. Then there were 5 consecutive days of declines on April 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. This was followed by 3 consecutive days of increases on April 22, 23, and 24. The increase was 17.4% on April 24 compared to April 23. The last 2 days (April 25 and 26) have seen declines of 17.6% and 21% compared to the previous days.
What is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA had 21 consecutive days of declines from April 3 to 23. However, it went up on April 24 and 25, followed by a drop on April 26. Though the two days of increases after 21 consecutive days of declines is not a good sign, if we look at the 7-day moving average (“7DMA”), this shows 26 uninterrupted days of declines since April 1.
The story with deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph was going up and down like a pendulum till April 21, but is on a decline since then. The 5DMA for deaths has been showing a gradual decline, except small upticks on April 3, 14, 17, and 24. The 7DMA for deaths also shows 26 uninterrupted days of declines since April 1.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the strict social distancing measures (like lockdown) imposed on over half the world’s population. Who’s to tell what could happen if such measures are lifted or eased — as has already been done or is being discussed — in the countries most affected by Coronavirus, including USA, Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, amongst several others.
I will do a separate post on this subject about India.
LATEST UPDATES (at 08:00 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 3 million cases
- The global death toll is over 207,000
- India has reached 28,074 cases and 884 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 27 in this Study), India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
- Maharashtra, with 8,068 cases, would rank No.39 in the world if it were a country
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 41 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
48 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)