Coronavirus Global Comparison Study — Growth 19–26 April Vs. 18–25 April

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Before I proceed further, it is important to mention that Data from Spain, Switzerland and Ecuador has not been updated in the last 24 hours, which will definitely skew all the statistical analysis.

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 42 days. The 27 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 21 with the highest number of cases (over 18,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.

The Table with data from the chosen 27 countries comprises 2,615,245 COVID-19 cases (up 3.07% from 2,537,469 yesterday), which is 89.1% of the total 2,934,654 cases (up 3.1% from 2,846,536 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample. The comparisons with yesterday’s figures would be definitely impacted due to updated data from Spain, Switzerland, and Ecuador not being available.

Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 19–26 April with the seven day period 18–25 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.25 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.27 times. Cases in the 27 countries in this Study have gone up by 1.24 times.

Ignoring countries with under 25,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 9.51% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 10.62%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 15 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 100,000 cases in 3 days (it crossed 75,000 cases as predicted). It still puzzles me that Russia is ranked No.10 in number of cases, but No.20 in number of deaths (up from No.24 on April 21). What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?

Peru has dethroned India from the No.2 spot in terms of CDGR. With a CDGR of 8.38% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 5.98%), Peru is projected to cross 30,000 cases in 3 days.

India with a CDGR of 7.34% (down from 7.73%) will cross 30,000 cases in 2 days. Brazil 7.01% (up from 6.75%) will cross 75,000 cases in 4 days; Canada 4.48% (up from 3.99%) will cross 50,000 in 3 days; Turkey 3.92% (down from 4.22%) will cross 125,000 in 4 days; USA 3.82% (down from 3.86%) will cross 1 million in 2 days; UK 3.81% (down from 4.04%) will cross 150,000 in 1 day; Belgium 2.62% (down from 2.87%) will cross 50,000 in 4 days; Netherlands 2.36% (down from 2.64%) will cross 40,000 in 4 days; Spain 1.91% (down from 2.3%) will cross 225,000 in 1 day; Italy 1.51% (down from 1.62%) will cross 200,000 in 2 days; Iran 1.38% (down from 1.43%) will cross 100,000 in 8 days; Germany 1.23% (down from 1.33%) will cross 160,000 in 2 days; France 0.89% (down from 1.11%) will cross 165,000 in 3 days; and Switzerland 0.76% (down from 0.93%) will cross 30,000 in 5 days. Note that the figures for Spain and Switzerland may not be accurate as they have not reported data for 24 hours.

As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.

In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.17% for all 27 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.75%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.81%, and for the “Bottom 9” countries it is 1.34%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 1.47%.

Of the 513,600 new cases reported in these 27 countries in the last seven days, 86.7% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 14,109 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 858 tests per million). With just 458 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.

On April 22, I had said at the beginning of my daily update that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Ecuador seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. So I have been keeping an alert eye on them. Peru had a 42% growth in cases in 4 days and has already reached No.17 in no. of cases, Saudi Arabia 40.1% (now No.22), Singapore 39.1% and Ecuador 118.5% (now No.19).

Today (April 26) I want to add Romania (No.31) and Belarus (No.33) to this list and will be keeping track of these countries as well.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 12:15 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 2.938 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 203,800
  • India has reached 26,529 cases and 830 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 27 in this Study), India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14). India’s Maharashtra state, with 7,628 cases, would rank No.40 in the world if it were a country
  • Russia became the 10th country to cross 80,000 cases
  • 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 40 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 48 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • UK became the 5th country to cross 20,000 deaths, Belgium the 6th to cross 7,000, and Brazil the 11th to cross 4,000
  • 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 8 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 12 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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