Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT or 05:30 am IST) every day.
The daily growth rate in the number of cases shows a zig-zag curve (ups and downs) for the entire period of 15 days. However, what is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA has been showing a continuously declining or flat curve, except for small upticks on 10th and 13th April. There has been no uptick for 9 days and is therefore a very good sign which shows that the disease may be SLOWLY on its way out.
The story with the number of deaths is not much different. While the daily growth curve has been swinging up and down much more intensely than the growth curve for cases, the 5DMA in the cases of deaths has also been showing a gradual decline, except small upticks on 9th, 11th, and 21st April.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the national lockdown, now in its 30th day. Who’s to tell what could happen when the lockdown is lifted in 11 days (4th May)? Perhaps we will know the answers before then, as other countries have either already started or will start lifting restrictions before that.
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:00 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.656 million cases
- The global death toll is over 185,000
- India has reached 21,563 cases and 685 deaths as per covid19india.org
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 21 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 36 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
45 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- India has moved up to the 19th spot in deaths (from No.20 on April 21)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)