Italy out for 25, Germany 150 not out — COVID-19 Growth 16–23 Vs. 15–22 April

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Yes, Italy has sadly become the second country (after USA) to cross 25,000 deaths due to the Coronavirus pandemic, and Germany the fifth country to cross 150,000 cases.

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 39 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 14,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.

The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,388,397 COVID-19 cases (up 3.01% from 2,318,519 yesterday), which is 89.9% of the total 2,656,622 cases (up 3.17% from 2,574,994 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 16–23 April with the seven day period 15–22 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.27 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.33 times. Cases in the 28 countries in this Study have gone up by 1.26 times.

Ignoring countries with under 20,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 12.26% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 13.11%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 12 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 75,000 cases in 2 days. One thing puzzles me. Russia is ranked No.10 in number of cases, but No.21 in number of deaths (up from No.24 on April 21). What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?

India has a CDGR of 7.74% (down from 8.39%), the second highest after Russia, as has also been the case for at least 12 days. At this CDGR, India will cross 25,000 cases in 2 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 28 in this Study), India is still at No.17 (up from No.22 on April 14) but is most likely to move up to No.16 by tomorrow.

Brazil with a CDGR of 6.97% (down from 7.77%) will cross 50,000 cases in 2 days; Turkey 5.16% (down from 5.64%) will cross 100,000 in 1 day; UK 4.44% (down from 4.65%) will cross 150,000 in 3 days; Canada 4.21% (down from 4.42%) will cross 50,000 in 6 days; USA 4.02% (down from 4.2%) will cross 1 million in 5 days; Netherlands 3.09% (down from 3.18%) will cross 40,000 in 5 days; Belgium 3% (down from 3.21%) will cross 50,000 in 6 days; Portugal 2.23% (down from 2.41%) will cross 25,000 in 6 days; Spain 2.21% (down from 2.31%) will cross 225,000 in 3 days; Italy 1.82% (up from 1.79%) will cross 200,000 in 4 days; Germany 1.61% (down from 1.69%) will cross 160,000 in 4 days; Iran 1.58% (down from 1.71%) will cross 90,000 in 3 days; France 1.3% (down from 2.43%) will cross 175,000 in 7 days; and Switzerland 1.12% (up from 1.08%) will cross 30,000 in 5 days.

From the data of the last few days, it seems that, of the Top 15 countries with the most cases, Italy, Germany, Iran, France and Switzerland have been able to control the spread much better than the others.

As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.

All projections in the preceding five paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory, and it seems like most countries have enhanced their testing capabilities based on this.

In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.3% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 7.48%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 4.01%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 1.57%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 9” goes up to 1.72%.

Of the 485,812 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 90.1% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 5,633 tests per million people excluding China), than the 14 others (estimated 892 tests per million). With just 366 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 14 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.

Yesterday, I had said at the beginning of my daily update that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador and Singapore seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. So I have been keeping an alert eye on them. Peru had a 7.92% growth in cases in one day, Saudi Arabia 9.81%, and Singapore 11.13%. Ecuador is probably not such a big problem.

Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna

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To Mask or Not To Mask?

Mortality Rates in 28 Countries

Recoveries Vs. Deaths in Top 20 Countries

New York Crosses Quarter Million Cases

Post on Infection Rates


Which Countries have the Highest Growth in Deaths?

Is something wrong with the way India is conducting tests or reporting data?

LATEST UPDATES (at 12:30 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 2.658 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 185,400
  • India has reached 21,700 cases and 689 deaths as per
  • Pakistan has crossed 10,000 cases
  • Russia became the 10th country to cross 60,000 cases and Canada the 13th to cross 40,000 cases
  • 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 36 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 45 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • Netherlands became the 10th country to cross 4,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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