Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
While the daily growth rate in number of cases had ups and downs during 8–10 April, it had 3 days of continuous declines from 11–13 April followed by 3 days of continuous increases from 14–16 April. Thereafter, we have seen 5 days of continuous declines from 17–21 April and a small 0.1% increase yesterday (22 Apr).
What is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA has been showing a continuously declining or flat curve since 5th April. This is a very good sign and shows that the disease may be SLOWLY on its way out.
The story with the number of deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph still continues to swing like a pendulum, though the intensity of the swings has come down. This may be due to some countries reporting deaths late. Even in the case of deaths, the 5DMA has been showing a gradual decline, except small upticks on 14th and 17th April.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the strict social distancing measures (like lockdown) imposed on over half the world’s population. Who’s to tell what could happen if such measures are lifted or eased in the countries most affected by Coronavirus, including USA, Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, amongst several other countries.
I will do a separate post on this subject about India.
LATEST UPDATES (at 10:15 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.655 million cases
- The global death toll is over 185,000
- India has reached 21,559 cases and 685 deaths as per covid19india.org
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 21 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 36 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
45 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- India has moved up to the 19th spot in deaths (from No.20 on April 21)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)