I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 52 days and have written 120 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 52 days. As I was spending 5-6 hours a day on these posts, I took a much-deserved 3-day break. Sorry if I disappointed a few people by doing that. However, I captured all the relevant data at the appropriate time during this 3-day break, so that there is nothing missing in the analysis.
The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 21 with the highest number of cases (over 25,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Pakistan, Japan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in number of cases.
The Table with data from the chosen 26 countries comprises 3,293,270 COVID-19 cases (up 2.17% from 3,223,390 yesterday), which is 87.9% of the total 3,747,356 cases (up 2.28% from 3,663,961 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 29 April–6 May with the seven day period 28 April–5 May. Global COVID-19 cases have gone up 18.8% in seven days, while deaths have gone up 16.5%. Cases in the 26 countries in this Study have gone up by 18.4%.
Compared to each of my earlier posts on this subject, I will now project data for future cases a little differently. Countries with under 20,000 cases and a “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) lower than 1.50% will be ignored.
Based on the criteria in the previous para, Russia is projected to cross 200,000 cases in 3 days based on the same CDGR, Peru 75,000 in 6 days, Brazil 150,000 in 4 days, India 60,000 in 3 days, Mexico 30,000 in 3 days, Pakistan 25,000 in 2 days, Saudi Arabia 40,000 in 5 days, Ecuador 40,000 in 6 days, Canada 75,000 in 7 days, UK 200,000 in 1 day, USA 1.5 million in 8 days, and Turkey 140,000 in 5 days.
Of the 511,996 new cases reported in these 26 countries in the last seven days, 86.3% are from the 13 countries with the most number of cases. This is one proof that much more testing has been done in these 13 countries (estimated 20,565 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 1,545 tests per million). With just 934 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
On April 22, I said that Ecuador, Peru, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore are emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on them. Ecuador, Peru, and Saudi Arabia are now in the Top 18 in number of cases. Singapore had a 112.7% growth in cases in 14 days. On April 26 & 27, I added Belarus and Qatar to the list of countries to watch out for. Belarus had 75.4% growth in cases in 10 days, while Qatar had 66.6% growth in 9 days.
LATEST UPDATES (at 2:45 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.759 million cases
- The Top 20 countries have together crossed 3.2 million cases
- The global death toll is over 259,500
- India has reached 52,247 cases and 1,766 deaths as per covid19india.org
- In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.14 (up from No.22 on April 14)
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 16,758 cases, would rank No.29 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
- Spain became the 2nd country (after USA) to cross 250,000 cases, Iran the 10th to cross 100,000 cases, and Peru the 13th to cross 50,000 cases
- 7 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
- 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
- 21 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 32 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 39 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 47 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
54 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- USA became the first country to cross 70,000 deaths and Canada the 12th country to cross 4,000 deaths
- 5 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
- 10 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 22 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 30 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)