Let’s Talk About Mortality Rates

I wrote a post on this exact issue on April 22 and before that on April 9.

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 46 days and have written 112 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 46 days.

The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 20 with the highest number of cases (over 21,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in no. of cases.

The Table with data from the chosen 26 countries comprises 2,852,907 COVID-19 cases, which is 88.2% of the total 3,235,722 cases reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

The average “Mortality Rate” (number of deaths as a percentage of those who had tested positive for Coronavirus) for the 26 countries is 7.54% (up from 7.3% on April 21 and 6.2% on April 9). The median is 5.7% (up from 4.9% on April 21 and 4% on April 9).

The average Mortality Rate is 12.68% for the Top 9 countries in this Study, 5.52% for the Middle 9 countries, and just 1.96% for the Bottom 8 countries.

Is the Mortality Rate high due to the high median ages (in brackets after each country’s name) in Italy (45.5 years), Spain (42.7), Netherlands (42.6), Belgium (41.4), France (41.4), and UK (40.5)? If that is so, why do Mexico (28.5) and Indonesia (30.2) have high Mortality Rates?

On the other hand, why is the Mortality Rate so low in Japan (median age 47.3 years), Germany (47.1), Portugal (42.2), Canada (42.2), and Russia (39.6), which also have relatively high median ages?

Do scientists or healthcare professionals have any explanations?

Also look at the column titled “CHANGE“. Why has the Mortality Rate shot up so much in UK, Mexico, France, and Canada in just 8 days? Even more surprising — how has it come down so much in Ecuador, Bangladesh, and Indonesia?

While we are at it, let us also look at the “Deaths per Million” in the last column. The average for all 26 countries is 41. Why do all 9 European nations have such a high Death Rate (average 333.2)? Why do both North American nations (USA and Canada) have a high Death rate of (average) 176.5? And why do all 3 nations in the Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) have such a low Death Rate (average 0.914)? Do these figures have anything to do with the intensity of testing?

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LATEST UPDATES (at 4:00 pm UTC):

• The world has crossed 3.256 million cases
• The global death toll is over 230,200
• India has reached 34,754 cases and 1,151 deaths as per covid19india.org
• In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.15 (up from No.22 on April 14).
• India’s Maharashtra state, with 10,498 cases, would rank No.36 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
• Russia became the 8th country to cross 100,000 cases
• 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
• 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
• 18 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
• 28 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
• 37 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
• 43 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)

• 50 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

• USA became the first country to cross 60,000 deaths and Iran the 8th to cross 6,000
• 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
• 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
• 14 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
• 19 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
• 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)