Declining Trends Bring Good News

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Before I start, let me say that I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 46 days and have written 111 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 46 days.

Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.

Compared to the previous day, the daily growth rate in number of cases went down for 7 consecutive days from April 15 to 21, followed by 3 consecutive days of increases on April 22, 23, and 24. Then there were 3 consecutive days of declines on April 25, 26, and 27. The last 2 days (April 28 and 28) have seen increases compared to the previous day.

What is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA had 20 consecutive days of declines from April 4 to 23. However, it went up on April 24 and 25, followed by 4 consecutive drops from April 26 to 29. Though the two days of increases after 20 consecutive days of declines was not a good sign, if we look at the 7-day moving average (“7DMA”), this shows 28 uninterrupted days of declines since April 2.

The story with deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph is going up and down like a see-saw, as the orange line in the graph shows. The 5DMA for deaths has been showing a gradual decline since April 3, except small upticks on April 17 and 24. The 7DMA for deaths also shows 28 uninterrupted days of declines since April 2.

If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the strict social distancing measures (like lockdown) imposed on over half the world’s population. Who’s to tell what could happen if such measures are lifted or eased — as has already been done or is being discussed — in the countries most affected by Coronavirus, including USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and Denmark, amongst several others.

I will shortly write a separate post on the subject of the daily, 5DMA and 7DMA trends in cases and deaths in India.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 2:00 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 3.248 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 229,300
  • India has reached 33,694 cases and 1,095 deaths as per
  • In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 9,915 cases, would rank No.38 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • Russia became the 8th country to cross 100,000 cases
  • 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
  • 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 18 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 28 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 37 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 43 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 50 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • USA became the first country to cross 60,000 deaths and Iran the 8th to cross 6,000
  • 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 19 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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