USA Out for 60, Russia 100 Not Out — Covid Growth 23–30 April Vs. 22–29 April

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Yes, sadly, USA has crossed 60,000 deaths and Russia 100,000 cases.

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 46 days and have written 110 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 46 days.

The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 20 with the highest number of cases (over 21,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in no. of cases.

The Table with data from the chosen 26 countries comprises 2,852,907 COVID-19 cases (up 2.58% from 2,781,274 yesterday), which is 88.2% of the total 3,235,722 cases (up 2.67% from 3,151,603 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 23–30 April with the seven day period 22–29 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 22% in seven days, while deaths have gone up 21.8%. Cases in the 26 countries in this Study have gone up by 21.4%.

Ignoring countries with under 32,000 cases, for the second day now, Peru the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 8.43% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.31%). Earlier, Russia had the highest CDGR for 17 days. At the same CDGR, Peru will cross 40,000 cases in 3 days.

With a CDGR of 8.05% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 7.77%), Brazil will cross 100,000 cases in 4 days; Russia 7.84% (down from 8%) will cross 125,000 in 3 days; India 6.42% (same as yesterday) will cross 40,000 in 3 days; Canada 3.63% (down from 3.84%) will cross 60,000 in 5 days; USA 3.28% (down from 3.41%) will cross 1.25 million in 5 days; UK 3.09% (down from 3.22%) will cross 175,000 in 2 days; Turkey 2.54% (down from 2.63%) will cross 125,000 in 3 days; Belgium 1.81% (down from 1.92%) will cross 50,000 in 2 days; Netherlands 1.55% (down from 1.7%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; Spain 1.53% (down from 1.55%) will cross 250,000 in 4 days; Iran 1.21% (down from 1.23%) will cross 100,000 in 5 days; Italy 1.2% (down from 1.31%) will cross 225,000 in 9 days;  Germany 0.99% (down from 1.06%) will cross 175,000 in 9 days; and France 0.57% (down from 0.7%) will cross 175,000 in 9 days.

There is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data. Of the countries with 32,000+ cases, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Italy, Germany, and France seem to be managing the disease quite well.

In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 2.8% for all 26 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.03%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.15%, and for the “Bottom 8” countries it is 1.03%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 7” goes up to 1.12%.

Of the 501,199 new cases reported in these 26 countries in the last seven days, 84.8% are from the 13 countries with the most number of cases. This only proves that much more testing has been done in these 13 countries (estimated 16,115 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 1,098 tests per million). With just 608 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.

On April 22, I had said that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Ecuador seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on these countries. Peru, Saudi Arabia and Ecuador have already climbed into the Top 20 in number of cases, so I will automatically be keeping an eye on them. Singapore had a 71.4% growth in cases in 8 days and has already reached No.24 globally.

On April 26 & 27, I added Belarus and Qatar to the list of countries to watch out for. Belarus had 37.5% growth in cases in 4 days, while Qatar had 22.1% growth in 3 days. I shall keep a watch over them over the next few days.

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Is India Conducting Tests or Reporting Data Wrongly?

Why do Eastern & North-eastern India still have Low Covid-19 Cases?

India’s Infection Rate is Low because Testing is Still Very Low

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LATEST UPDATES (at 12:45 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 3.241 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 228,800
  • India has reached 33,531 cases and 1,093 deaths as per In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 9,915 cases, would rank No.38 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
  • 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 18 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 28 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 37 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 43 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 50 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • Iran became the 8th country to cross 6,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 19 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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