Before I start, let me say that I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 43 days.
Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 5-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT or 05:30 am IST) every day.
The daily growth rate in the number of cases shows a zig-zag curve (ups and downs) for the entire period of 15 days. However, what is much more important is the 5-day moving average (“5DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 5DMA has shown a declining or flat curve for 23 days since April 4, except for small upticks on April 10 and 13. There has been no uptick for the last 13 days and is therefore a very good sign which shows that the disease may be SLOWLY on its way out.
The story with the number of deaths is not much different. While the daily growth curve has been swinging up and down much more intensely than the growth curve for cases, the 5DMA in the cases of deaths has also been showing a gradual decline for 22 days since April 5, except small upticks on April 9, 11, 21 and 24. But if we look at the 7-day moving average (“7DMA”) for deaths, this has not gone up after April 11.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the national lockdown, now in its 34th day. Who’s to tell what could happen when the lockdown is lifted in 7 days (May 4)? Perhaps we will know the answers before then, as some other countries have either already lifter/eased restrictions or will start lifting/easing them before that.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a video conference with all state chief ministers this morning, to discuss the way forward. I hope they listened to the advice of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who said in a recent press conference that the government’s response should be “strategic“. In fact, he used the word “strategic” as many as 17 times in the 54-minute press conference.
LATEST UPDATES (at 09:30 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.004 million cases
- The global death toll is over 207,200
- India has reached 28,118 cases and 886 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
- Maharashtra, with 8,068 cases, would rank No.39 in the world if it were a country
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 41 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
48 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)