I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 43 days. The 27 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 21 with the highest number of cases (over 18,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 27 countries comprises 2,615,245 COVID-19 cases, which is 89.1% of the total 2,934,654 cases reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT yesterday, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
The 27 countries in the Table have an average “Infection Rate” of 500 per million residents. However, if we leave China out (as its data is considered unreliable), the Infection Rate goes up to 667 per million.
The average Infection Rate of the “Top 5” countries — all in Europe — is 3,877/million. That means almost 4 out of every 1,000 residents in these 5 countries got infected with the Coronavirus. USA comes next with 2,920/million. The next 6 countries are again all in Europe and their average Infection Rate is 2,150/million. Overall, these 12 countries (11 of which are in Europe) have an average Infection Rate of 2,824/million.
Excluding China, the “Bottom 5” — all considered as “Third World” Countries — have an average Infection Rate of only 25/million. India (19/million) is part of these 5, and so are our neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh. Does this mean that these countries have managed to avoid or control the virus? No, of course not. If you look at the last column, the simple conclusion is that these 5 countries have done far fewer tests (average 405 per million) than the 12 in the previous para (average 18,114 per million). Even the term far fewer is a huge understatement, as the average number of tests done in the Top 12 is 44.7 times more than tests done in the Bottom 5 countries.
What would be the scenario if the Bottom 5 countries would have done the same number of tests per million as the Top 12 countries, or 40.17 million tests instead of just 898,423 which they have actually done? For this, you need to look at the second last column, titled “Positivity Rate”, which means the percentage of people tested positive for COVID-19 out of the total number tested. Based on the average Positivity Rate of 6.086% for the Bottom 5, they would have 2.445 million Coronavirus cases instead of just 54,682. Don’t forget that the Bottom 5 represent 28.75% of world population, while the Top 12 only represent 9.27%.
Yes, the world is going to see huge surprises if the Bottom 5 countries were to ramp up their testing 44.7 times to match the Testing Rate of the Top 12.
One surprising thing is that, despite a high number of tests per million, Canada and Russia have low Infection Rates. WHY IS THAT?
LATEST UPDATES (at 10:30 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.007 million cases
- The global death toll is over 207,200
- India has reached 28,118 cases and 886 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
- Maharashtra, with 8,068 cases, would rank No.39 in the world if it were a country
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 41 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
48 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)