I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 43 days. The 27 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 21 with the highest number of cases (over 18,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 27 countries comprises 2,686,939 COVID-19 cases (up 2.74% from 2,615,245 yesterday), which is 89% of the total 3,017,776 cases (up 2.83% from 2,934,654 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 20–27 April with the seven day period 19–26 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.244 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.251 times. Cases in the 27 countries in this Study have gone up by 1.24 times.
Ignoring countries with under 27,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 9.18% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 9.51%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 16 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 100,000 cases in 2 days. It still puzzles me that Russia is ranked No.9 in number of cases, but No.20 in number of deaths (up from No.24 on April 21). What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?
On April 26, Peru dethroned India from the No.2 spot in terms of CDGR. With a CDGR of 8.42% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.38%), Peru is projected to cross 30,000 cases in 2 days.
Brazil with a CDGR of 7.06% (up from 7.01%) will cross 75,000 cases in 3 days; India 6.69% (down from 7.34%) will cross 30,000 cases in 1 to 2 days. Canada 4.24% (up from 4.48%) will cross 50,000 in 2 days; USA 3.73% (down from 3.82%) will cross 1 million cases tonight; Turkey 3.54% (down from 3.92%) will cross 125,000 in 4 days; UK 3.51% (down from 3.81%) crossed 150,000 cases as projected and is now projected to cross 175,000 cases in 4 days; Spain 2.39% (up from 1.91%) crossed 225,000 as projected and will next cross 250,000 in 3 days; Belgium 2.24% (down from 2.62%) will cross 50,000 in 4 days; Netherlands 2.13% (down from 2.36%) will cross 40,000 in 3 days; Italy 1.43% (down from 1.51%) will cross 200,000 in 1 day; Iran 1.31% (down from 1.38%) will cross 100,000 in 8 days; Germany 1.14% (down from 1.23%) will cross 160,000 in 2 days; France 0.84% (down from 0.89%) will cross 165,000 in 3 days; and Switzerland 0.56% (down from 0.76%) will cross 30,000 in 6 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.12% for all 27 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.45%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.67%, and for the “Bottom 9” countries it is 1.41%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 1.53%.
Of the 519,704 new cases reported in these 27 countries in the last seven days, 86.8% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 14,334 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 956 tests per million). With just 487 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
On April 22, I had said that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Ecuador seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. I have been keeping an alert eye. Peru had a 54.3% growth in cases in 5 days and has already reached No.17 globally in no. of cases, Saudi Arabia 50.7% is at No.22, Singapore 49.3% is at No.26, and Ecuador 118.5% is at No.19.
Yesterday (April 26), I added Romania (No.31) and Belarus (was No.33 yesterday, is No.32 today) in the list of countries to watch out for. Today (April 27), I want to add Qatar (No.33). I shall be reporting growth figures for these countries in the next day or two.
LATEST UPDATES (at 1:30 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.014 million cases
- The global death toll is over 207,900
- India has reached 28,144 cases and 887 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 8,068 cases, would rank No.39 in the world if it were a country
- UK became the 6th country to cross 150,000 cases
- Russia became the 9th country to cross China in no. of cases
- Brazil became the 11th country to cross 60,000 cases
- 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
- 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 41 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
48 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 8 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)